Ligue 2Red Star vs 
Metz Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 52.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Red Star have averaged 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, Metz 1.6 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.6% for over 2.5 and 73.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Red Star have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Metz in 2 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.8% | 8.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 74.1% |
| 4.5 goals | 12.0% | 88.1% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.7% | 95.3% |
Team goal lines
80.4%
48.5%
22.5%
61.2%
24.5%
7.1%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 11.7% | 88.3% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 15.7% | 84.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Red Star goals scored per game1.2Red Star goals conceded per game40.0%Red Star Over 2.5 rate0.8Red Star 1st-half goals per game1.6Metz goals scored per game0.8Metz goals conceded per game40.0%Metz Over 2.5 rate0.8Metz 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
49.8%Both Teams to Score47.6%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 47.6% for three or more goals and 73.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Red Star favoured at 52.8%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Red Star to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Red Star 1 · 1 draws · Metz 3 · 2.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Red Star vs Metz?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 47.6% for Red Star vs Metz.
Will there be a first-half goal in Red Star vs Metz?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 69.4%.
How often have Red Star gone over 2.5 recently?
Red Star have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Metz in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,656 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 2, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.