AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 31 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
MontpellierMontpellierDWWWW
Fri, 6 Nov 20266/1119:00UK
MetzMetzDLWDL

Montpellier vs Metz cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.9%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Montpellier vs Metz. It tips Metz for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.1% 25.0%
3.5 cards 55.2% 44.9%
4.5 cards 35.6% 64.4%
5.5 cards 20.3% 79.7%

Who picks up more cards

Montpellier
34.7%
Level
20.8%
Metz
44.6%

Team cards lines

Montpellier

Over 1.5
54.7%
Over 2.5
27.9%

Metz

Over 1.5
61.8%
Over 2.5
34.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Montpellier's; Metz gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Montpellier line Montpellier Metz
-1.5 17.9% 82.1%
-0.5 34.7% 65.3%
+0.5 55.5% 44.6%
+1.5 74.5% 25.5%

Red card

Any red card20.3%
Montpellier red card7.6%
Metz red card13.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 94.8% 5.2%
22.5 fouls 89.4% 10.6%
24.5 fouls 81.1% 18.9%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Montpellier P. Gaillouste 2 6.5 2.5
Montpellier R. Landry 2 4.5 2.0
Metz Gael Angoula 2 4.0 2.0
Metz M. Leleu 2 4.0 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

MontpellierMontpellier

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Montpellier at home and Metz away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MetzMetz
Statistic
Montpellier
Metz
Cards per game at this venue
·
1.8

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
1.5

Yellow cards per game
2.3
1.8

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.6
1.1

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
37.5%

Matches with card data
6
8
Red cards this season
·
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 11,340 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 31 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 55.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.1% for over 2.5 to 20.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.2%. Head to head on cards, Metz are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.6%, with a level count at 20.8%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Montpellier over 1.5 cards sits at 54.7% and Metz at 61.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.3% (Montpellier 7.6%, Metz 13.8%). Montpellier’s most frequent referee this season, P. Gaillouste, has averaged 6.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

55.2%Over 3.5 cards
20.3%Any red card
44.6%Most cards: Metz
54.7%Montpellier over 1.5 cards
61.8%Metz over 1.5 cards
89.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherP. Gaillouste, Montpellier’s most frequent referee this season, averages 6.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 20.3%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianMetz are the pick to collect more cards at 44.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
MontpellierMontpellier

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MetzMetz
Statistic
Montpellier
Metz
cards per game
·
1.9

fouls per game
17.0
13.8

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Montpellier vs Metz?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.2% for Montpellier vs Metz.
Will there be a red card in Montpellier vs Metz?
The model rates a red card for either side at 20.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Montpellier vs Metz?
The model rates Metz to pick up more cards at 44.6%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Ligue 2Montpellier fixtures and statsMetz fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.