Primeira Liga
Casa Pia vs 
Porto Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 54.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Casa Pia have averaged 0.0 scored and 2.2 conceded, Porto 2.2 and 0.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.3% for over 2.5 and 71.5% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.6 goals a game. Casa Pia have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Porto in 2 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.2% | 8.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 76.0% |
| 4.5 goals | 10.7% | 89.3% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.1% | 95.9% |
Team goal lines
43.9%
11.5%
2.1%
85.2%
56.9%
29.9%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 68.4% | 31.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 11.0% | 89.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 73.6% | 26.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 15.1% | 84.9% |
This season (2026/27)
0.0Casa Pia goals scored per game2.2Casa Pia goals conceded per game20.0%Casa Pia Over 2.5 rate0.0Casa Pia 1st-half goals per game2.2Porto goals scored per game0.2Porto goals conceded per game40.0%Porto Over 2.5 rate1.4Porto 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
37.8%Both Teams to Score45.3%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 45.3% for three or more goals and 71.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Porto favoured at 68.8%, the scoreline often hinges on whether the favourite is made to chase.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Porto to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Casa Pia 1 · 0 draws · Porto 4 · 2.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Casa Pia vs Porto?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 45.3% for Casa Pia vs Porto.
Will there be a first-half goal in Casa Pia vs Porto?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 68.4%.
How often have Casa Pia gone over 2.5 recently?
Casa Pia have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Porto in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,656 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.