Benfica vs Gil Vicente prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

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Benfica vs Gil Vicente: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 13 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Benfica

DWWWW

Sun, 13 Sep 202618:00UK
Gil Vicente

LWWDL

Model’s top convictions

87%

Benfica or draw

79%

Over 1.5 goals

57%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.03).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BenficaWin probability
66.9%
Top 3 convictions

Benfica or draw87.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.15
Over 1.5 goals78.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Over 8.5 corners57.3%Good chancePays @ 1.75

Model read

▾

Few Primeira Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Benfica carry a 67% win probability against Gil Vicente on 13 September 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Benfica at 86%. Caution noted. Totals sit close to the fence: 55% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. The run in: Benfica arrive W5 D1 L0, Gil Vicente W2 D1 L3. Schedule edge: Gil Vicente have had 3 more days of rest than Benfica. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 5 wins for Benfica, 0 draws and 0 for Gil Vicente, averaging 3.6 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.03).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.3%@ 2.11
Over 10.5 corners38.0%@ 2.63
Draw or Gil Vicente33.1%@ 3.02
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals54.8%@ 1.82
Not both teams to score51.9%@ 1.93
Random finds

2-0 correct score12.3%@ 8.15
1-0 correct score11.3%@ 8.85
1-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.28

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Benfica

66.9%-19.4%

Draw

20.4%+9.5%

Gil Vicente

12.7%+9.9%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.03)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.6%

High probability

Over 2.554.8%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes48.1%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.557.3%

Good chance

Over 9.547.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.6%

Low chance

Most cornersBenfica59.3%Gil Vicente30.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.556.0%

Good chance

Over 24.543.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.532.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.8%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Benfica20.7 taken7.5 faced
Gil Vicente14.3 taken10.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.6%2.554.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.578.6%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.03).

Form & head-to-head

BenficaDWWWW
Gil VicenteLWWDL

Last 5 meetings: Benfica 5 · 0 draws · Gil Vicente 0 · 3.6 goals/game.

2026-03-02Gil Vicente 1-2 Benfica
2025-09-26Benfica 2-1 Gil Vicente
2025-03-28Gil Vicente 0-3 Benfica
2024-09-28Benfica 5-1 Gil Vicente
2024-02-04Benfica 3-0 Gil Vicente

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

BenficaGil Vicente
League position#2 of 18#7 of 18
Record W-D-L4-1-02-1-1
Current streakW4L1
Points per game2.60·
Record, home vs away1-1-00-1-0
Goals scored per game3.60·
Goals conceded per game0.60·
1st half goals per game1.20·
2nd half goals per game2.40·
Corners won per game6.8·
Cards per game1.4·
Fouls per game13.0·
Red cards this season00
Shots per game21.0·
Shots faced per game5.8·
Shots on target per game8.4·
Over 2.5 rate

100.0%·

BTTS rate

40.0%·

Clean sheets

60.0%·

Rates this season:BenficaGil Vicente

League averages this season: 2.64 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 52% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Benfica win1.111.49
Draw7.504.90
Gil Vicente win21.007.87
Over 2.5 goals1.481.82
Under 2.5 goals2.602.21

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Benfica win1.49
Draw4.90
Gil Vicente win7.90
Both teams to score2.08

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.27
Over 2.5 goals1.82
Over 3.5 goals3.08
Benfica most1.49
Gil Vicente most7.90

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.41
Over 8.5 corners1.67
Over 9.5 corners2.06
Over 10.5 corners2.65
Benfica most1.68
Gil Vicente most3.24

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.22
Over 3.5 cards1.53
Over 4.5 cards2.16
Over 5.5 cards3.40
Benfica most3.33
Gil Vicente most1.95

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.66
Over 8.5 SoT2.10
Over 9.5 SoT2.80
Benfica most1.55
Gil Vicente most4.16

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.78
Over 24.5 shots2.28
Over 26.5 shots3.07
Over 28.5 shots4.38
Benfica most1.50
Gil Vicente most3.58

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.20
Over 22.5 fouls1.37
Over 24.5 fouls1.64
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 56.0% Over 24.5 43.9% Over 26.5 32.6% Over 28.5 22.8%
Most: Benfica 66.5% Most: Gil Vicente 28.0%
Benfica Over 13.2 47.7% Gil Vicente Over 13.2 21.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.6% Over 7.5 60.3% Over 8.5 47.6% Over 9.5 35.7%
Most: Benfica 64.6% Most: Gil Vicente 24.1%
Benfica Over 4.2 56.3% Gil Vicente Over 4.2 26.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 82.3% Over 3.5 65.3% Over 4.5 46.4%
Most: Benfica 30.0% Most: Gil Vicente 51.2%
Benfica Over 1.8 57.8% Gil Vicente Over 1.8 71.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Benfica clean sheet 44.6%
Gil Vicente clean sheet 12.5%
Benfica win to nil 38.5%
Gil Vicente win to nil 6.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 66.9% draw 20.4% away 12.7%
double_chance
1X 87.3% 12 79.6% X2 33.1%
dnb
home 84.1% away 15.9%
btts
yes 48.1% no 51.9%
clean_sheet
home 45.5% away 12.5%
win_to_nil
home 39.4% away 6.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.0% home_by_2 20.5% home_by_3plus 22.4%
away_by_1 8.8% away_by_2 3.0% away_by_3plus 0.9%
correct_score
0-0 6.1% 0-1 4.0% 0-2 1.8%
0-3 0.5% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 11.3% 1-1 9.7% 1-2 3.7%
1-3 1.0% 1-4 0.2% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 12.3% 2-1 9.6% 2-2 3.8%
2-3 1.0% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 8.6% 3-1 6.7% 3-2 2.6%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 4.5% 4-1 3.5% 4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.9% 5-1 1.5% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 2.0%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 12.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.9% under_0.5 6.1% over_1.5 78.6%
under_1.5 21.4% over_2.5 54.8% under_2.5 45.2%
over_3.5 32.5% under_3.5 67.5% over_4.5 16.4%
under_4.5 83.6% over_5.5 7.2% under_5.5 92.8%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 87.5% under_0.5 12.5% over_1.5 61.6%
under_1.5 38.4% over_2.5 34.7% under_2.5 65.4%
team_away
over_0.5 54.5% under_0.5 45.5% over_1.5 18.7%
under_1.5 81.3% over_2.5 4.6% under_2.5 95.4%
most
home 66.9% draw 20.4% away 12.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 22.4% away_+2.5 77.6% home_-1.5 43.0%
away_+1.5 57.1% home_-0.5 66.9% away_+0.5 33.1%
home_+0.5 87.3% away_-0.5 12.7% home_+1.5 96.2%
away_-1.5 3.8% home_+2.5 99.1% away_-2.5 0.9%
total_exact
exact_0 6.1% exact_1 15.3% exact_2 23.8%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 16.1% exact_5 9.2%
exact_6 4.4% exact_7plus 2.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 51.2% draw 37.5% away 11.3%
total
over_0.5 71.2% under_0.5 28.8% over_1.5 35.3%
under_1.5 64.7% over_2.5 13.0% under_2.5 87.0%
btts
yes 15.7% no 84.3%
total_exact
exact_0 28.8% exact_1 35.9% exact_2 22.3%
exact_3 9.3% exact_4plus 3.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 56.5% draw 30.6% away 12.9%
total
over_0.5 80.8% under_0.5 19.2% over_1.5 49.1%
under_1.5 50.9% over_2.5 22.9% under_2.5 77.1%
btts
yes 24.5% no 75.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 46.8% H/D 3.6% H/A 0.8%
D/H 21.2% D/D 11.5% D/A 4.8%
A/H 2.7% A/D 3.2% A/A 5.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 70.9% under_7.5 29.1% over_8.5 59.9%
under_8.5 40.2% over_9.5 48.5% under_9.5 51.5%
over_10.5 37.7% under_10.5 62.3% over_11.5 28.2%
under_11.5 71.8% over_12.5 20.3% under_12.5 79.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.0% under_3.5 26.0% over_4.5 60.2%
under_4.5 39.8% over_5.5 46.3% under_5.5 53.7%
team_away
over_3.5 54.4% under_3.5 45.6% over_4.5 38.2%
under_4.5 61.8% over_5.5 25.1% under_5.5 74.9%
most
home 59.5% draw 9.6% away 30.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.0% away_+3.5 70.0% home_-1.5 49.3%
away_+1.5 50.7% home_-0.5 59.5% away_+0.5 40.5%
home_+0.5 69.1% away_-0.5 30.9% home_+1.5 77.6%
away_-1.5 22.5% home_+3.5 89.8% away_-3.5 10.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 56.0% under_22.5 44.0% over_24.5 43.9%
under_24.5 56.1% over_26.5 32.6% under_26.5 67.5%
over_28.5 22.8% under_28.5 77.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.2% under_10.5 28.8% over_12.5 55.6%
under_12.5 44.4% over_14.5 40.1% under_14.5 59.9%
team_away
over_10.5 44.2% under_10.5 55.8% over_12.5 27.7%
under_12.5 72.3% over_14.5 15.8% under_14.5 84.2%
most
home 66.5% draw 5.5% away 28.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 42.2% away_+4.5 57.8% home_-2.5 54.5%
away_+2.5 45.5% home_-0.5 66.5% away_+0.5 33.5%
home_+0.5 72.0% away_-0.5 28.0% home_+2.5 81.5%
away_-2.5 18.5% home_+4.5 88.7% away_-4.5 11.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.6% under_6.5 27.5% over_7.5 60.3%
under_7.5 39.7% over_8.5 47.6% under_8.5 52.4%
over_9.5 35.7% under_9.5 64.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.5% under_3.5 27.5% over_4.5 56.3%
under_4.5 43.7% over_5.5 40.4% under_5.5 59.6%
team_away
over_3.5 43.9% under_3.5 56.1% over_4.5 26.6%
under_4.5 73.5% over_5.5 14.5% under_5.5 85.6%
most
home 64.6% draw 11.3% away 24.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 39.1% away_+2.5 60.9% home_-0.5 64.6%
away_+0.5 35.4% home_+0.5 75.9% away_-0.5 24.1%
home_+2.5 91.3% away_-2.5 8.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 82.3% under_2.5 17.7% over_3.5 65.3%
under_3.5 34.7% over_4.5 46.4% under_4.5 53.6%
over_5.5 29.4% under_5.5 70.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 57.8% under_1.5 42.2% over_2.5 30.9%
under_2.5 69.1%
team_away
over_1.5 71.8% under_1.5 28.2% over_2.5 46.4%
under_2.5 53.6%
most
home 30.0% draw 18.8% away 51.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.6% away_+1.5 84.4% home_-0.5 30.0%
away_+0.5 70.0% home_+0.5 48.8% away_-0.5 51.2%
home_+1.5 67.6% away_-1.5 32.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 83.2% under_20.5 16.8% over_22.5 73.1%
under_22.5 26.9% over_24.5 61.1% under_24.5 38.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 77.0% under_9.5 23.0% over_11.5 59.6%
under_11.5 40.4% over_13.5 41.5% under_13.5 58.5%
team_away
over_9.5 82.1% under_9.5 17.9% over_11.5 66.6%
under_11.5 33.4% over_13.5 49.0% under_13.5 51.0%
most
home 41.5% draw 6.4% away 52.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.2% away_+3.5 75.8% home_-0.5 41.5%
away_+0.5 58.5% home_+2.5 60.7% away_-2.5 39.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.2% no 80.8%
home
yes 9.6% no 90.4%
away
yes 10.6% no 89.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Benfica predictions · Gil Vicente predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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