La Liga
MalagaMalagaDDLLD
Full time2-5Sun, 18 Oct 202618/1017:30UK21°C · Cloudy
SociedadSociedadDWLWW

Malaga 2-5 Real Sociedad both teams to score: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Both teams to score: Yes59%
Both teams to score: No41%

Result

Malaga2-5Sociedad
Yes

We called Yes at 59.0% and it landed.

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Both teams to score · Yes59.0%

Both Teams to Score

YesModel lean59.0%
No41.0%

Related market Over 2.5 goals 55.2%

Recent scoring & conceding

Goals scored and conceded per game over each side's recent matches. The bar runs from 0 to 3.5 goals per game.

Malaga scored
0.6
Malaga conceded
1.2
Sociedad scored
1.8
Sociedad conceded
1.8

Each team to score

Malaga to score76.2%
Malaga 2+ goals42.1%
Sociedad to score76.6%
Sociedad 2+ goals42.7%

By half

Both score in 1st half20.2%
Both score in 2nd half23.1%

Goals distribution

How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.

6.1%

0

14.9%

1

23.8%

2

22.3%

3

16.2%

4

16.0%

5+

Recent trends

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side's recent games.

MalagaBTTS 3/5Over 2.5 1/5
SociedadBTTS 3/5Over 2.5 4/5

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

MalagaMalagaLast 5
D
Draw · 0-0
D
Draw · 1-1
L
Loss · 1-3
L
Loss · 0-1
D
Draw · 1-1

0 wins · 3 draws · 2 losses

SociedadSociedadLast 5
D
Draw · 0-0
W
Win · 3-2
L
Loss · 0-3
W
Win · 3-2
W
Win · 3-2

3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2MalagaMalaga wins
2Draws
1SociedadSociedad wins
2.4Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
MalagaMalaga
2 – 0
SociedadSociedad
SociedadSociedad
0 – 2
MalagaMalaga
SociedadSociedad
2 – 2
MalagaMalaga
MalagaMalaga
0 – 2
SociedadSociedad
SociedadSociedad
1 – 1
MalagaMalaga

Match outlook

Malaga35.6%
Draw26.1%
PickSociedad38.3%

The model leans Sociedad to win.

See the full prediction

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

53.4%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0218Calibration error
72,238Matches graded

In 34,661 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 54.3% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.5%✗ 57.9%✗ 55.0%✗ 58.1%✓ 61.6%✓ 65.1%✓ 51.0%✗ 51.9%✗ 52.7%✗ 56.6%
4 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26No 50.5%Hit
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Yes 57.9%Miss
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26No 55.0%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Yes 58.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Yes 61.6%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Both teams to score · Yes at 59.0%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Malaga have averaged 0.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, Sociedad 1.8 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 55.2% for over 2.5 and 79.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Malaga have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Sociedad in 3 of 5. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

On the goals side, the model sees 55.2% for three or more goals and 79.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Sociedad favoured at 38.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

38.3%Favoured: Sociedad
59.0%Both Teams to Score
55.2%Over 2.5 goals

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 59.0% on Both Teams to Score. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The TacticianReads an open, higher-tempo game from the 55.2% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutSociedad are the model’s pick on the result at 38.3%, context for how the goals may flow.
MalagaMalaga

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

SociedadSociedad
Statistic
Malaga
Sociedad
BTTS rate
50.0%
62.5%

clean sheets
12.5%
12.5%

goals scored per game
0.5
1.5

Bar scales · Recorded rate (%): 0–100 · Goals per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

MalagaMalaga (1)
Chupe
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
11.8%
8.47
1+ shot on target
39.5%
2.53
2+ shots
59.5%
1.68
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.23
On target0.56
Goals0.14
SociedadSociedad (1)
Orri Óskarsson
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
22.1%
4.52
1+ shot on target
43.2%
2.31
2+ shots
31.5%
3.17
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.37
On target1.18
Goals0.52

FAQ

Did both teams score in Malaga vs Sociedad?
We rated Both Teams to Score at 59.0%. Both teams scored, final score 2-5.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.