Bundesliga
Mainz vs Paderborn Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. On the result, Mainz are favoured at 60.7%, so game state could swing this market. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Mainz vs Paderborn. It tips Paderborn for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
For context, Mainz are favoured at 60.7%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Mainz to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Mainz 3 · 1 draws · Paderborn 0 · 3.5 goals/game.
FAQ
How many cards in Mainz vs Paderborn?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.8% for Mainz vs Paderborn.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.