Bundesliga
FC Koln vs 
Hoffenheim Cards
Result
Settled, final score 3-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 57.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 76.8% for over 2.5 to 22.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.4%. Between the two sides, Hoffenheim are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.5%, with a level count at 20.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 76.8% | 23.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 22.1% | 77.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
52.8%
26.1%
66.2%
39.6%
Card handicap
| FC Koln line | FC Koln | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.2% | 84.9% |
| -0.5 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| +0.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| +1.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 25.4% | 74.6% |
This season (2025/26)
2.0FC Koln cards per game8.3FC Koln fouls per game2.2Hoffenheim cards per game13.9Hoffenheim fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for FC Koln vs Hoffenheim. It tips Hoffenheim for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
57.4%Over 3.5 cards22.0%Any red card52.8%FC Koln over 1.5 cards66.2%Hoffenheim over 1.5 cards35.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, FC Koln over 1.5 cards sits at 52.8% and Hoffenheim at 66.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.0% (FC Koln 11.4%, Hoffenheim 12.0%). This season FC Koln have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Hoffenheim 2.2.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in FC Koln vs Hoffenheim?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 57.4% for FC Koln vs Hoffenheim.
Will there be a red card in FC Koln vs Hoffenheim?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 22.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in FC Koln vs Hoffenheim?
Before kickoff, the model rated Hoffenheim to pick up more cards at 49.5%, with a level count at 20.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.