Bundesliga
Dortmund vs 
Hamburg Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 55.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. For context, Dortmund are favoured at 71.6%, so game state could swing this market. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Dortmund vs Hamburg. Slightly more cards are projected for Dortmund for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
On the result, Dortmund are favoured at 71.6%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Dortmund to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Dortmund 4 · 1 draws · Hamburg 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
FAQ
How many cards in Dortmund vs Hamburg?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.9% for Dortmund vs Hamburg.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
AI experts on this match
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| sot_specialist v1.0 | sot_over_6.5 |
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.