Ligue 1
Lorient vs 
Toulouse Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Away at 72.4%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Lorient are favoured at 41.6%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lorient by 1 | 21.3% |
| Lorient by 2 | 12.2% |
| Lorient by 3+ | 7.0% |
| Toulouse by 1 | 18.3% |
| Toulouse by 2 | 9.1% |
| Toulouse by 3+ | 4.3% |
| Draw | 27.6% |
Goal handicap
| Lorient line | Lorient | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.2% | 80.8% |
| -0.5 | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| +0.5 | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| +1.5 | 86.6% | 13.4% |
Double chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Lorient or Toulouse on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
52.2%Both Teams to Score
46.9%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, Lorient are favoured at 41.6%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Lorient 0 · 2 draws · Toulouse 3 · 1.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Lorient vs Toulouse?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Lorient vs Toulouse at 72.4%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Lorient vs Toulouse?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Lorient at 56.1% and Toulouse at 43.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.