AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
LincolnLincolnWLLLD
Full time4-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
BurnleyBurnleyLDWDL

Lincoln 4-1 Burnley cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45%

Result

Lincoln4-1Burnley
2 yellow cardsLincoln 1, Burnley 1
0 red cardsLincoln 0, Burnley 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 55.0% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 80.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.0%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Thomas Parsons

Recorded match referee.

Thomas Parsons in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 60 4
Goals 2.68 Not available
Yellow cards 4.52 Not available
Red cards 0.19 Not available
Corners 10.0 Not available
Fouls 24.7 Not available
Both teams scored 60% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 48% Not available
Home wins 42% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Lincoln vs Burnley 4-1 5 Yes 2 0 7 19
3 Oct 2026 Chesterfield vs TranmereLeague Two 4-2 6 Yes 6 0 13 24
19 Sep 2026 QPR vs Preston 2-2 4 Yes 4 1 12 21
12 Sep 2026 Bolton vs Cardiff 1-0 1 No 7 0 12 29
15 May 2026 Notts County vs ChesterfieldLeague Two 0-0 0 No 2 Not available 11 30
2 May 2026 Harrogate vs BarnetLeague Two 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 10 24
25 Apr 2026 Norwich vs Swansea 1-1 2 Yes 8 0 7 22
18 Apr 2026 Sheffield Weds vs Charlton 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 9 30
28 Mar 2026 Salford vs Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two 1-0 1 No 3 1 8 25
21 Mar 2026 Tranmere vs SwindonLeague Two 0-1 1 No 1 0 14 21

Thomas Parsons referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lincoln vs Burnley. It tips Burnley for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.0% 25.1%
3.5 cards 55.0% 45.0%
4.5 cards 35.5% 64.5%
5.5 cards 20.2% 79.8%

Who picks up more cards

Lincoln
32.9%
Level
20.7%
Burnley
46.4%

Team cards lines

Lincoln

Over 1.5
53.3%
Over 2.5
26.5%

Burnley

Over 1.5
62.9%
Over 2.5
35.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Lincoln's; Burnley gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Lincoln line Lincoln Burnley
-1.5 16.7% 83.3%
-0.5 32.9% 67.1%
+0.5 53.6% 46.4%
+1.5 73.0% 27.0%

Red card

Any red card19.9%
Lincoln red card10.7%
Burnley red card10.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 62.0% 38.1%
22.5 fouls 46.3% 53.7%
24.5 fouls 31.7% 68.3%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Burnley A Backhouse 2 3.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 55.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.0% for over 2.5 to 20.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.0%. Between the two sides, Burnley are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 20.7%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Lincoln over 1.5 cards sits at 53.3% and Burnley at 62.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.9% (Lincoln 10.7%, Burnley 10.2%). Burnley’s most frequent referee this season, A Backhouse, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

55.0%Over 3.5 cards
19.9%Any red card
46.4%Most cards: Burnley
53.3%Lincoln over 1.5 cards
62.9%Burnley over 1.5 cards
46.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherA Backhouse, Burnley’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 19.9%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianBurnley are the pick to collect more cards at 46.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.

FAQ

How many cards in Lincoln vs Burnley?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.0% for Lincoln vs Burnley.
Will there be a red card in Lincoln vs Burnley?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 19.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lincoln vs Burnley?
Before kickoff, the model rated Burnley to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.