AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
LensLensLDLWW
Full time2-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1019:45UK
Paris FCParis FCWDWLW

Lens 2-1 Paris FC corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined50.2%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined49.8%

Result

Lens2-1Paris FC
7 cornersLens 6, Paris FC 1
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 50.2% and it missed (7 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners50.2%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Lens.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 73.6% 26.4%
8.5 corners 62.2% 37.8%
9.5 corners 50.2% 49.8%
10.5 corners 38.6% 61.4%
11.5 corners 28.3% 71.7%
12.5 corners 19.8% 80.2%

Who wins the corner count

Lens
58.5%
Level
10.2%
Paris FC
31.3%

Team corners lines

Lens

Over 3.5
76.0%
Over 4.5
61.5%
Over 5.5
46.5%

Paris FC

Over 3.5
57.9%
Over 4.5
40.6%
Over 5.5
26.2%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Lens's; Paris FC gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Lens line Lens Paris FC
-3.5 27.6% 72.5%
-1.5 47.7% 52.3%
-0.5 58.5% 41.5%
+0.5 68.7% 31.3%
LensLens

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Lens at home and Paris FC away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Paris FCParis FC
Statistic
Lens
Paris FC
Corners won per game at this venue
6.3
·

Corners conceded per game at this venue
3.7
·

Matches with more corners than the opponent
83.3%
40.0%

Matches with corner data
6
5

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 50.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 73.6% for over 7.5 to 19.8% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.2%. Between the two sides, Lens are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 58.5%, with a level count at 10.2%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Lens over 4.5 corners sits at 61.5% and Paris FC at 40.6%. This season Lens have averaged 7.0 corners won a game and Paris FC 3.0.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

50.2%Over 9.5 corners
58.5%Most corners: Lens
61.5%Lens over 4.5 corners
40.6%Paris FC over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.2% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderLens are the pick to win the corner count at 58.5%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 50.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
LensLens

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Paris FCParis FC
Statistic
Lens
Paris FC
corners won per game
7.0
3.0

corners conceded per game
3.2
3.6

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Lens vs Paris FC?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 50.2% for Lens vs Paris FC.
Which team will win the corner count in Lens vs Paris FC?
Before kickoff, the model rated Lens to win the corner count at 58.5%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How many corners do Lens and Paris FC average this season?
Lens have won 7.0 corners a game this season and Paris FC 3.0.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Ligue 1Lens fixtures and statsParis FC fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.