Ligue 1
Le Havre vs 
Monaco Shots
Result
Settled, final score 0-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 51.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 64.2% for over 22.5 to 28.4% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.7%. Between the two sides, Le Havre are the model’s pick to have more shots at 54.9%, with a level count at 6.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.5% | 60.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.4% | 71.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
70.2%
53.1%
36.6%
59.8%
41.6%
26.1%
Shot handicap
| Le Havre line | Le Havre | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 30.3% | 69.7% |
| -2.5 | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| -0.5 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| +0.5 | 61.1% | 38.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 37.1% | 62.9% |
This season (2025/26)
11.0Le Havre shots per game12.5Monaco shots per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Le Havre.
In-depth analysis
51.7%Over 24.5 shots53.1%Le Havre over 12.5 shots41.6%Monaco over 12.5 shots61.7%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Le Havre over 12.5 shots sits at 53.1% and Monaco at 41.6%. This season Le Havre have averaged 11.0 shots a game and Monaco 12.5.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 51.7% for Le Havre vs Monaco.
Which team will have more shots in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Before kickoff, the model rated Le Havre to take more shots at 54.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.