Ligue 1
Le Havre vs 
Monaco Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 52.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.9% for over 2.5 to 18.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.4%. On the card count, Monaco are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.3%, with a level count at 21.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.3% | 81.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.6%
24.2%
61.8%
34.8%
Card handicap
| Le Havre line | Le Havre | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| -0.5 | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| +0.5 | 52.8% | 47.3% |
| +1.5 | 72.6% | 27.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 56.6% | 43.4% |
This season (2025/26)
2.0Le Havre cards per game13.7Le Havre fouls per game2.3Monaco cards per game13.0Monaco fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Le Havre vs Monaco. It tips Monaco for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
52.4%Over 3.5 cards23.4%Any red card50.6%Le Havre over 1.5 cards61.8%Monaco over 1.5 cards69.9%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Le Havre over 1.5 cards sits at 50.6% and Monaco at 61.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.4% (Le Havre 10.9%, Monaco 14.0%). This season Le Havre have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Monaco 2.3.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.4% for Le Havre vs Monaco.
Will there be a red card in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 23.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Before kickoff, the model rated Monaco to pick up more cards at 47.3%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.