Ligue 1
Le Havre vs 
Monaco Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 54.2% and it missed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 54.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Le Havre have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, Monaco 2.0 and 2.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 54.2% for over 2.5 and 78.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Le Havre have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Monaco in 4 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.6% | 6.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 78.3% | 21.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| 4.5 goals | 16.0% | 84.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 7.0% | 93.0% |
Team goal lines
71.5%
35.7%
13.3%
79.7%
47.3%
21.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 13.4% | 86.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 79.6% | 20.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 21.3% | 78.7% |
This season (2025/26)
0.9Le Havre goals scored per game1.3Le Havre goals conceded per game32.4%Le Havre Over 2.5 rate0.4Le Havre 1st-half goals per game1.8Monaco goals scored per game1.6Monaco goals conceded per game64.7%Monaco Over 2.5 rate0.7Monaco 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
57.5%Both Teams to Score54.2%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 54.2% for three or more goals and 78.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Monaco favoured at 46.3%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Monaco to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Le Havre 0 · 3 draws · Monaco 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Le Havre vs Monaco?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 54.2%. The match finished with 1 goals (0-1), under 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,212 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.