AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Serie A
LazioLazioWDWWW
Full time2-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1019:45UK
ParmaParmaDLWLL

Lazio 2-1 Parma cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.4%

Result

Lazio2-1Parma
2 yellow cardsLazio 1, Parma 1
0 red cardsLazio 0, Parma 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 55.6% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 71.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Alberto Ruben Arena

Recorded match referee.

Alberto Ruben Arena in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 14 3
Goals 2.21 Not available
Yellow cards 2.93 Not available
Red cards 0.00 Not available
Corners 8.8 Not available
Fouls 21.1 Not available
Both teams scored 71% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 43% Not available
Home wins 36% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Lazio vs Parma 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 11 17
12 Sep 2026 Atalanta vs Cagliari 1-2 3 Yes 0 0 5 17
22 Aug 2026 Udinese vs Como 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 11 24
17 May 2026 Cagliari vs Torino 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 6 21
9 Mar 2026 Lazio vs Sassuolo 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 7 15
31 Jan 2026 Pisa vs Sassuolo 1-3 4 Yes 6 0 7 21
19 Jan 2026 Cremonese vs Verona 0-0 0 No 3 0 9 26
3 Jan 2026 Como vs Udinese 1-0 1 No 4 0 5 27
23 Nov 2025 Lazio vs Lecce 2-0 2 No 2 0 10 21
2 Nov 2025 Torino vs Pisa 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 6 22

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lazio vs Parma. The model leans toward Parma for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.7% 25.3%
3.5 cards 55.6% 44.4%
4.5 cards 36.9% 63.1%
5.5 cards 22.0% 78.0%

Who picks up more cards

Lazio
33.6%
Level
20.0%
Parma
46.5%

Team cards lines

Lazio

Over 1.5
53.3%
Over 2.5
27.7%

Parma

Over 1.5
62.4%
Over 2.5
36.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Lazio's; Parma gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Lazio line Lazio Parma
-1.5 17.7% 82.3%
-0.5 33.6% 66.4%
+0.5 53.6% 46.5%
+1.5 72.2% 27.8%

Red card

Any red card28.8%
Lazio red card16.9%
Parma red card14.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 71.0% 29.0%
22.5 fouls 58.4% 41.6%
24.5 fouls 45.4% 54.6%
LazioLazio

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Lazio at home and Parma away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ParmaParma
Statistic
Lazio
Parma
Yellow cards per game
1.6
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
0.2

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.8
1.4

Matches with card data
2
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.7% for over 2.5 to 22.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.6%. On the card count, Parma are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.5%, with a level count at 20.0%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Lazio over 1.5 cards sits at 53.3% and Parma at 62.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 28.8% (Lazio 16.9%, Parma 14.3%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

55.6%Over 3.5 cards
28.8%Any red card
46.5%Most cards: Parma
53.3%Lazio over 1.5 cards
62.4%Parma over 1.5 cards
58.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 28.8%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianParma are the pick to collect more cards at 46.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 55.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
LazioLazio

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ParmaParma
Statistic
Lazio
Parma
fouls per game
13.8
11.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Lazio vs Parma?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.6% for Lazio vs Parma.
Will there be a red card in Lazio vs Parma?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 28.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lazio vs Parma?
Before kickoff, the model rated Parma to pick up more cards at 46.5%, with a level count at 20.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Serie ALazio fixtures and statsParma fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.