La Liga
La CorunaLa CorunaWDLDL
Full time1-1Fri, 16 Oct 202616/1020:00UK17°C · Rain
LevanteLevanteWDLLD

Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Levante expected goals (xg): our prediction vs the result

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

La Coruna1.54

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Levante1.85

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Result

La Coruna1-1Levante
1.46 – 0.56 xGUnderstat

The match produced 1.46 xG for La Coruna and 0.56 xG for Levante, against a final score of 1-1. The chances and the scoreline broadly agreed.

Expected Goals (xG)

La Coruna have created 1.54 xG and scored 1.67 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Levante have created 1.85 xG and scored 1.83 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

La CorunaLa Coruna

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

LevanteLevante
Statistic
La Coruna
Levante
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.54
1.85

xG conceded per game
1.47
2.42

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

La CorunaLa CorunaLast 5
W
Win · 3-2
D
Draw · 1-1
L
Loss · 0-1
D
Draw · 1-1
L
Loss · 2-3

1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses

LevanteLevanteLast 5
W
Win · 5-2
D
Draw · 0-0
L
Loss · 2-4
L
Loss · 1-3
D
Draw · 3-3

1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2La CorunaLa Coruna wins
3Draws
0LevanteLevante wins
3.0Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
La CorunaLa Coruna
2 – 2
LevanteLevante
LevanteLevante
2 – 2
La CorunaLa Coruna
La CorunaLa Coruna
2 – 1
LevanteLevante
LevanteLevante
1 – 1
La CorunaLa Coruna
La CorunaLa Coruna
2 – 0
LevanteLevante

Match outlook

PickLa Coruna40.2%
Draw24.2%
Levante35.6%

The model leans La Coruna to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

40.2%Favoured: La Coruna
60.3%Both Teams to Score
56.9%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

La CorunaLa Coruna (1)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
34.4%
2.91
1+ shot on target
69.4%
1.44
2+ shots
62.2%
1.61
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.65
On target1.49
Goals0.53
LevanteLevante (1)
Etta Eyong
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
18.3%
5.46
1+ shot on target
49.1%
2.04
2+ shots
39.0%
2.56
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.80
On target1.40
Goals0.42

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More La Liga, Expected Goals (xG)

Related

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.