Bundesliga
Hoffenheim vs 
Stuttgart Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 72.1%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Hoffenheim have averaged 1.6 scored and 2.6 conceded, Stuttgart 2.6 and 2.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 72.1% for over 2.5 and 89.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.6 goals a game. Hoffenheim have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Stuttgart in 5 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 97.2% | 2.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| 3.5 goals | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 17.6% | 82.4% |
Team goal lines
85.2%
56.9%
29.9%
83.9%
54.6%
27.8%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 83.3% | 16.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 26.6% | 73.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 87.7% | 12.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 34.9% | 65.1% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
71.9%Both Teams to Score72.1%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 72.1% for three or more goals and 89.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Hoffenheim favoured at 40.9%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Hoffenheim to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Hoffenheim 0 · 4 draws · Stuttgart 1 · 2.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 72.1% for Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart.
Will there be a first-half goal in Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 83.3%.
How often have Hoffenheim gone over 2.5 recently?
Hoffenheim have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Stuttgart in 5 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 800 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 70.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
AI experts on Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| netbuilder v1.0 | Over 2.5 goals |
More Bundesliga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.