2. Bundesliga
Hertha vs 
Greuther Furth Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 66.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 77.8% for over 22.5 to 42.2% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.6%. On the shot count, Hertha are the model’s pick to have more shots at 55.6%, with a level count at 6.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 42.2% | 57.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
79.7%
64.4%
47.3%
70.3%
52.4%
35.1%
Shot handicap
| Hertha line | Hertha | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 31.1% | 69.0% |
| -2.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| -0.5 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| +0.5 | 61.7% | 38.3% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 45.9% | 54.1% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
19.2Hertha shots per game13.3Hertha shots faced per game14.0Greuther Furth shots per game15.3Greuther Furth shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Hertha.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
66.9%Over 24.5 shots64.4%Hertha over 12.5 shots52.4%Greuther Furth over 12.5 shots70.0%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Hertha over 12.5 shots sits at 64.4% and Greuther Furth at 52.4%. This season Hertha have averaged 19.2 shots a game and Greuther Furth 14.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Hertha vs Greuther Furth?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 66.9% for Hertha vs Greuther Furth.
Which team will have more shots in Hertha vs Greuther Furth?
The model rates Hertha to take more shots at 55.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 2,773 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
