2. Bundesliga
Hertha vs 
Greuther Furth Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 57.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 80.7% for over 7.5 to 26.8% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.7%. Between the two sides, Hertha are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 48.9%, with a level count at 10.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| 8.5 corners | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 11.5 corners | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 26.8% | 73.2% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.9%
61.0%
45.6%
71.0%
54.9%
39.2%
Corner handicap
| Hertha line | Hertha | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| -0.5 | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| +0.5 | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| +1.5 | 69.4% | 30.6% |
This season (2026/27)
5.7Hertha corners won per game5.0Hertha corners conceded per game5.0Greuther Furth corners won per game5.3Greuther Furth corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Hertha.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
59.4%Over 9.5 corners61.0%Hertha over 4.5 corners54.9%Greuther Furth over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Hertha over 4.5 corners sits at 61.0% and Greuther Furth at 54.9%. This season Hertha have averaged 5.7 corners won a game and Greuther Furth 5.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Hertha vs Greuther Furth?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 59.4% for Hertha vs Greuther Furth.
Which team will win the corner count in Hertha vs Greuther Furth?
The model rates Hertha to win the corner count at 48.9%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How many corners do Hertha and Greuther Furth average this season?
Hertha have won 5.7 corners a game this season and Greuther Furth 5.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,827 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
