2. Bundesliga
Hertha vs 
Greuther Furth Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 10.0% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Hertha have averaged 3.2 scored and 1.4 conceded, Greuther Furth 1.6 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 63.3% for over 2.5 and 84.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-0 | 8.0% |
| 1-0 | 7.4% |
| 3-1 | 6.7% |
| 2-2 | 5.9% |
| 1-2 | 5.8% |
| 3-0 | 5.5% |
Score probability grid
| Hertha \ Greuther Furth | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 7% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 6% | 7% | 4% | 2% | · | · |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = Hertha goals, columns = Greuther Furth. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.0%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
61.6%Both Teams to Score63.3%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 63.3% for three or more goals and 84.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Hertha favoured at 56.3%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Hertha 3 · 1 draws · Greuther Furth 1 · 3.2 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Hertha vs Greuther Furth?
The model's most likely scoreline for Hertha vs Greuther Furth is 1-1 at 10.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
