2. Bundesliga
Hertha vs 
Greuther Furth Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 62.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 80.6% for over 2.5 to 26.8% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.5%. Between the two sides, Hertha are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.2%, with a level count at 19.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 43.5% | 56.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 26.8% | 73.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
65.0%
38.3%
62.2%
35.2%
Card handicap
| Hertha line | Hertha | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.4% | 75.6% |
| -0.5 | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| +0.5 | 62.1% | 38.0% |
| +1.5 | 78.9% | 21.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 39.4% | 60.7% |
This season (2026/27)
3.2Hertha cards per game13.0Hertha fouls per game1.2Greuther Furth cards per game8.8Greuther Furth fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Hertha vs Greuther Furth. The model leans toward Hertha for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
62.7%Over 3.5 cards19.8%Any red card65.0%Hertha over 1.5 cards62.2%Greuther Furth over 1.5 cards53.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Hertha over 1.5 cards sits at 65.0% and Greuther Furth at 62.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.8% (Hertha 16.4%, Greuther Furth 4.1%). This season Hertha have averaged 3.2 cards a game and Greuther Furth 1.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Hertha vs Greuther Furth?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 62.7% for Hertha vs Greuther Furth.
Will there be a red card in Hertha vs Greuther Furth?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Hertha vs Greuther Furth?
The model rates Hertha to pick up more cards at 42.2%, with a level count at 19.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,143 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
