2. Bundesliga
Hertha vs 
Greuther Furth Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Home or Draw at 78.4%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Hertha are favoured at 56.3%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hertha by 1 | 22.1% |
| Hertha by 2 | 17.2% |
| Hertha by 3+ | 17.1% |
| Greuther Furth by 1 | 12.9% |
| Greuther Furth by 2 | 6.0% |
| Greuther Furth by 3+ | 2.8% |
| Draw | 22.1% |
Goal handicap
| Hertha line | Hertha | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 17.1% | 82.9% |
| -1.5 | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| -0.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| +0.5 | 78.4% | 21.6% |
This season (2026/27)
2.7Hertha goals scored per game1.1Hertha goals conceded per game1.5Greuther Furth goals scored per game1.8Greuther Furth goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Hertha or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
61.6%Both Teams to Score63.3%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, Hertha are favoured at 56.3%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Hertha 3 · 1 draws · Greuther Furth 1 · 3.2 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Hertha vs Greuther Furth?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for Hertha vs Greuther Furth at 78.4%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Hertha vs Greuther Furth?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Hertha at 72.2% and Greuther Furth at 27.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 40,221 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
