2. Bundesliga
Hertha vs 
Greuther Furth Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 63.3%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Hertha have averaged 3.2 scored and 1.4 conceded, Greuther Furth 1.6 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 63.3% for over 2.5 and 84.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. Hertha have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Greuther Furth in 2 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.7% | 4.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 84.2% | 15.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| 3.5 goals | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| 4.5 goals | 23.1% | 76.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 11.3% | 88.7% |
Team goal lines
87.1%
60.8%
33.8%
70.2%
34.2%
12.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 19.6% | 80.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 27.5% | 72.5% |
This season (2026/27)
2.7Hertha goals scored per game1.1Hertha goals conceded per game85.7%Hertha Over 2.5 rate1.3Hertha 1st-half goals per game1.5Greuther Furth goals scored per game1.8Greuther Furth goals conceded per game33.3%Greuther Furth Over 2.5 rate0.7Greuther Furth 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
61.6%Both Teams to Score63.3%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 63.3% for three or more goals and 84.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Hertha favoured at 56.3%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Hertha to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Hertha 3 · 1 draws · Greuther Furth 1 · 3.2 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hertha vs Greuther Furth?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 63.3% for Hertha vs Greuther Furth.
Will there be a first-half goal in Hertha vs Greuther Furth?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 78.1%.
How often have Hertha gone over 2.5 recently?
Hertha have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Greuther Furth in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 6,538 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
