AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
HeidenheimHeidenheimWWDDL
Full time1-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1012:00UK
CottbusCottbusDWDLD

Heidenheim 1-1 Cottbus corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined63%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined37%

Result

Heidenheim1-1Cottbus
17 cornersHeidenheim 15, Cottbus 2
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 63.0% and it landed (17 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 9.5 corners63.0%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Heidenheim.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 83.1% 16.9%
8.5 corners 73.8% 26.2%
9.5 corners 63.0% 37.0%
10.5 corners 51.5% 48.5%
11.5 corners 40.2% 59.8%
12.5 corners 30.1% 69.9%

Who wins the corner count

Heidenheim
45.9%
Level
10.5%
Cottbus
43.7%

Team corners lines

Heidenheim

Over 3.5
76.1%
Over 4.5
61.2%
Over 5.5
45.8%

Cottbus

Over 3.5
74.9%
Over 4.5
59.6%
Over 5.5
44.1%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Heidenheim's; Cottbus gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Heidenheim line Heidenheim Cottbus
-1.5 35.7% 64.3%
-0.5 45.9% 54.1%
+0.5 56.3% 43.7%
+1.5 66.4% 33.7%
HeidenheimHeidenheim

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Heidenheim at home and Cottbus away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CottbusCottbus
Statistic
Heidenheim
Cottbus
Corners won per game at this venue
5.3
8.7

Corners conceded per game at this venue
7.7
5.3

Matches with more corners than the opponent
16.7%
83.3%

Matches with corner data
6
6

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 1,506 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Corners actually happened 62.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 63.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 83.1% for over 7.5 to 30.1% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.5%. Head to head on corners, Heidenheim are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 45.9%, with a level count at 10.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Heidenheim over 4.5 corners sits at 61.2% and Cottbus at 59.6%. This season Heidenheim have averaged 4.5 corners won a game and Cottbus 7.8.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

63.0%Over 9.5 corners
45.9%Most corners: Heidenheim
61.2%Heidenheim over 4.5 corners
59.6%Cottbus over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 63.0% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderHeidenheim are the pick to win the corner count at 45.9%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 10.5 corners: over sits at 51.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 10.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
HeidenheimHeidenheim

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CottbusCottbus
Statistic
Heidenheim
Cottbus
corners won per game
4.5
7.8

corners conceded per game
6.7
5.2

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Heidenheim vs Cottbus?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 63.0% for Heidenheim vs Cottbus.
Which team will win the corner count in Heidenheim vs Cottbus?
Before kickoff, the model rated Heidenheim to win the corner count at 45.9%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How many corners do Heidenheim and Cottbus average this season?
Heidenheim have won 4.5 corners a game this season and Cottbus 7.8.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More 2. Bundesliga, Corners

Bielefeld vs Braunschweig corners predictionCottbus vs Bochum corners predictionDarmstadt vs Magdeburg corners predictionKaiserslautern vs Hertha corners predictionWolfsburg vs Osnabruck corners predictionKarlsruhe vs Heidenheim corners prediction

Corner predictions today

Related

2. BundesligaHeidenheim fixtures and statsCottbus fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.