AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
HeidenheimHeidenheimWWDDL
Full time1-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1012:00UK
CottbusCottbusDWDLD

Heidenheim 1-1 Cottbus cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined61.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined38.7%

Result

Heidenheim1-1Cottbus
4 yellow cardsHeidenheim 2, Cottbus 2
0 red cardsHeidenheim 0, Cottbus 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 61.3% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 83.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards61.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Patrick Schwengers

Recorded match referee.

Patrick Schwengers in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 11 2
Goals 2.73 Not available
Yellow cards 3.91 Not available
Red cards 0.09 Not available
Corners 10.3 Not available
Fouls 23.9 Not available
Both teams scored 64% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 46% Not available
Home wins 46% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Heidenheim vs Cottbus 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 17 13
29 Aug 2026 Nurnberg vs Bielefeld 4-1 5 Yes 2 0 11 20
26 Apr 2026 Nurnberg vs Magdeburg 1-0 1 No 4 0 8 25
22 Feb 2026 Preußen Münster vs Kaiserslautern 2-3 5 Yes 6 0 11 31
24 Jan 2026 Greuther Furth vs Braunschweig 0-0 0 No 5 1 12 29
14 Dec 2025 Darmstadt vs Preußen Münster 1-0 1 No 4 0 11 19
8 Nov 2025 Bielefeld vs Karlsruhe 4-0 4 No 2 0 8 18
17 Oct 2025 Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Braunschweig 1-2 3 Yes 3 0 11 22
19 Sep 2025 Kaiserslautern vs Preußen Münster 4-1 5 Yes 7 0 4 31
30 Aug 2025 Braunschweig vs Bielefeld 1-1 2 Yes 6 0 10 28

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Heidenheim vs Cottbus. The model leans toward Cottbus for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 79.6% 20.4%
3.5 cards 61.3% 38.7%
4.5 cards 41.9% 58.1%
5.5 cards 25.4% 74.6%

Who picks up more cards

Heidenheim
33.5%
Level
19.8%
Cottbus
46.7%

Team cards lines

Heidenheim

Over 1.5
57.9%
Over 2.5
30.9%

Cottbus

Over 1.5
66.9%
Over 2.5
40.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Heidenheim's; Cottbus gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Heidenheim line Heidenheim Cottbus
-1.5 17.6% 82.4%
-0.5 33.5% 66.5%
+0.5 53.3% 46.7%
+1.5 72.0% 28.0%

Red card

Any red card16.5%
Heidenheim red card7.5%
Cottbus red card9.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 67.3% 32.7%
22.5 fouls 52.9% 47.1%
24.5 fouls 38.6% 61.4%
HeidenheimHeidenheim

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Heidenheim at home and Cottbus away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CottbusCottbus
Statistic
Heidenheim
Cottbus
Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.2
·

Matches with more cards than the opponent
20.0%
·

Matches with card data
5
3
Red cards this season
0
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 61.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 79.6% for over 2.5 to 25.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.9%. Head to head on cards, Cottbus are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.7%, with a level count at 19.8%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Heidenheim over 1.5 cards sits at 57.9% and Cottbus at 66.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.5% (Heidenheim 7.5%, Cottbus 9.7%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

61.3%Over 3.5 cards
16.5%Any red card
46.7%Most cards: Cottbus
57.9%Heidenheim over 1.5 cards
66.9%Cottbus over 1.5 cards
52.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 61.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.5%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianCottbus are the pick to collect more cards at 46.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 41.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
HeidenheimHeidenheim

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CottbusCottbus
Statistic
Heidenheim
Cottbus
cards per game
2.0
·

fouls per game
10.3
13.8

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Heidenheim vs Cottbus?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 61.3% for Heidenheim vs Cottbus.
Will there be a red card in Heidenheim vs Cottbus?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Heidenheim vs Cottbus?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cottbus to pick up more cards at 46.7%, with a level count at 19.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

2. BundesligaHeidenheim fixtures and statsCottbus fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.