AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

La Liga
GetafeGetafeDDLWL
Full time1-1Mon, 19 Oct 202619/1020:00UK14°C · Cloudy
VallecanoVallecanoLWLWD

Getafe 1-1 Rayo Vallecano cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined72.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined27.2%

Result

Getafe1-1Vallecano
9 yellow cardsGetafe 6, Vallecano 3
1 red cardsGetafe 1, Vallecano 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 72.8% and it landed (9 in the match). We called No at 69.2% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards72.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban

Recorded match referee.

Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 28 5
Goals 2.86 2.80
Yellow cards 4.54 5.40
Red cards 0.30 0.40
Corners 9.5 8.8
Fouls 25.2 23.6
Both teams scored 61% 60%
Over 2.5 goals 50% 40%
Home wins 46% 20%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
19 Oct 2026 Getafe vs Vallecano 1-1 2 Yes 9 1 16 21
18 Sep 2026 Espanol vs Elche 1-3 4 Yes 4 1 6 23
13 Sep 2026 Levante vs Barcelona 2-4 6 Yes 2 0 8 22
31 Aug 2026 Osasuna vs Getafe 1-0 1 No 9 0 4 31
25 Aug 2026 Valencia vs Betis 0-1 1 No 3 0 10 21
9 Jun 2026 Almeria vs CastellonSegunda División 3-2 5 Yes 5 Not available 12 34
17 May 2026 Zaragoza vs Sp GijonSegunda División 1-3 4 Yes 4 0 11 29
3 May 2026 Las Palmas vs ValladolidSegunda División 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 10 24
19 Apr 2026 Almeria vs MalagaSegunda División 3-2 5 Yes 5 2 8 27
12 Apr 2026 Huesca vs La CorunaSegunda División 1-1 2 Yes 4 1 15 20

Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Getafe vs Vallecano. The model leans toward Vallecano for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 86.7% 13.3%
3.5 cards 72.8% 27.2%
4.5 cards 55.8% 44.3%
5.5 cards 38.9% 61.1%

Who picks up more cards

Getafe
37.4%
Level
17.7%
Vallecano
44.9%

Team cards lines

Getafe

Over 1.5
68.0%
Over 2.5
42.7%

Vallecano

Over 1.5
72.5%
Over 2.5
48.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Getafe's; Vallecano gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Getafe line Getafe Vallecano
-1.5 22.2% 77.9%
-0.5 37.4% 62.6%
+0.5 55.1% 44.9%
+1.5 71.6% 28.4%

Red card

Any red card30.9%
Getafe red card19.0%
Vallecano red card14.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 86.0% 14.0%
22.5 fouls 76.5% 23.5%
24.5 fouls 64.6% 35.4%
GetafeGetafe

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Getafe at home and Vallecano away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

VallecanoVallecano
Statistic
Getafe
Vallecano
Cards per game at this venue
3.3
2.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.0
2.0

Yellow cards per game
2.9
2.4

Matches with card data
8
7
Red cards this season
2
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 72.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 86.7% for over 2.5 to 38.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.8%. On the card count, Vallecano are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.9%, with a level count at 17.7%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Getafe over 1.5 cards sits at 68.0% and Vallecano at 72.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 30.9% (Getafe 19.0%, Vallecano 14.7%). This season Getafe have averaged 3.1 cards a game and Vallecano 2.7.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

72.8%Over 3.5 cards
30.9%Any red card
44.9%Most cards: Vallecano
68.0%Getafe over 1.5 cards
72.5%Vallecano over 1.5 cards
76.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 72.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 30.9%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianVallecano are the pick to collect more cards at 44.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 55.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
GetafeGetafe

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

VallecanoVallecano
Statistic
Getafe
Vallecano
cards per game
3.1
2.7

fouls per game
14.3
13.4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Getafe vs Vallecano?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 72.8% for Getafe vs Vallecano.
Will there be a red card in Getafe vs Vallecano?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 30.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Getafe vs Vallecano?
Before kickoff, the model rated Vallecano to pick up more cards at 44.9%, with a level count at 17.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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La LigaGetafe fixtures and statsRayo Vallecano fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.