AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Serie A
GenoaGenoaLDLWL
Full time1-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1014:00UK18°C · Cloudy
VeneziaVeneziaLLLLW

Genoa 1-0 Venezia cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.2%

Result

Genoa1-0Venezia
1 yellow cardsGenoa 1, Venezia 0
0 red cardsGenoa 0, Venezia 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 54.8% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 85.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Simone Sozza

Recorded match referee.

Simone Sozza in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 20 3
Goals 2.35 Not available
Yellow cards 3.75 Not available
Red cards 0.35 Not available
Corners 9.6 Not available
Fouls 24.6 Not available
Both teams scored 45% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 40% Not available
Home wins 40% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Genoa vs Venezia 1-0 1 No 1 0 12 23
19 Sep 2026 Venezia vs Lazio 0-2 2 No 6 0 9 22
5 Sep 2026 Inter vs Napoli 3-2 5 Yes 3 0 15 14
24 May 2026 Verona vs Roma 0-2 2 No 4 1 12 22
17 May 2026 Genoa vs Milan 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 8 27
26 Apr 2026 Milan vs Juventus 0-0 0 No 5 0 4 20
5 Apr 2026 Inter vs Roma 5-2 7 Yes 1 0 11 21
8 Mar 2026 Lecce vs Cremonese 2-1 3 Yes 5 1 8 46
1 Mar 2026 Roma vs Juventus 3-3 6 Yes 1 0 5 19
15 Feb 2026 Cremonese vs Genoa 0-0 0 No 2 0 17 22

Simone Sozza referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Genoa vs Venezia. Slightly more cards are projected for Venezia for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.1% 25.9%
3.5 cards 54.8% 45.2%
4.5 cards 36.1% 63.9%
5.5 cards 21.4% 78.6%

Who picks up more cards

Genoa
27.5%
Level
19.4%
Venezia
53.1%

Team cards lines

Genoa

Over 1.5
47.5%
Over 2.5
22.6%

Venezia

Over 1.5
66.0%
Over 2.5
40.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Genoa's; Venezia gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Genoa line Genoa Venezia
-1.5 13.4% 86.6%
-0.5 27.5% 72.5%
+0.5 46.9% 53.1%
+1.5 66.5% 33.5%

Red card

Any red card14.1%
Genoa red card9.3%
Venezia red card5.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 71.0% 29.0%
22.5 fouls 58.4% 41.7%
24.5 fouls 45.3% 54.7%
GenoaGenoa

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Genoa at home and Venezia away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

VeneziaVenezia
Statistic
Genoa
Venezia
Yellow cards per game
·
3.2

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
80.0%

Matches with card data
3
5
Red cards this season
·
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 54.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 74.1% for over 2.5 to 21.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.8%. Head to head on cards, Venezia are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.1%, with a level count at 19.4%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Genoa over 1.5 cards sits at 47.5% and Venezia at 66.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.1% (Genoa 9.3%, Venezia 5.2%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

54.8%Over 3.5 cards
14.1%Any red card
53.1%Most cards: Venezia
47.5%Genoa over 1.5 cards
66.0%Venezia over 1.5 cards
58.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianVenezia are the pick to collect more cards at 53.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 54.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
GenoaGenoa

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

VeneziaVenezia
Statistic
Genoa
Venezia
cards per game
·
3.2

fouls per game
10.0
11.6

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Genoa vs Venezia?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 54.8% for Genoa vs Venezia.
Will there be a red card in Genoa vs Venezia?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Genoa vs Venezia?
Before kickoff, the model rated Venezia to pick up more cards at 53.1%, with a level count at 19.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Serie A, Cards

Roma vs Cagliari predictionTorino vs Como predictionAC Milan vs Bologna cards predictionParma vs Udinese cards predictionVenezia vs Inter cards predictionGenoa vs Juventus cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Serie AGenoa fixtures and statsVenezia fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.