Premier League
Fulham vs 
Crystal Palace Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 52.5% and it landed (0 in the match). We called No at 85.9% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 47.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 68.9% for over 2.5 to 15.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.5%. Between the two sides, Crystal Palace are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.5%, with a level count at 21.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.0% | 85.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
48.1%
22.2%
57.6%
30.6%
Card handicap
| Fulham line | Fulham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.8% | 84.2% |
| -0.5 | 32.7% | 67.3% |
| +0.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| +1.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 21.1% | 78.9% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Fulham vs Crystal Palace. The model leans toward Crystal Palace for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
47.5%Over 3.5 cards14.1%Any red card48.1%Fulham over 1.5 cards57.6%Crystal Palace over 1.5 cards34.4%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Fulham over 1.5 cards sits at 48.1% and Crystal Palace at 57.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.1% (Fulham 4.4%, Crystal Palace 10.2%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 47.5% for Fulham vs Crystal Palace.
Will there be a red card in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Before kickoff, the model rated Crystal Palace to pick up more cards at 45.5%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.