Manchester City vs Coventry prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Manchester City vs Coventry: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Premier League
Manchester City

WDLWW

Full time1-0Sat, 5 Sep 202615:00UK18°C · Clearing
Coventry

LL

Model’s top convictions

92%

Manchester City or draw

84%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time3 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Manchester City 1-0 Coventry
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
4 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Manchester City at 75.9%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 63.5% and it missed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 84.2% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 58.7% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 50.4% and it missed. We called Yes at 77.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 80.3% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 54.5% and it missed (9 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 51.6% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 50.1% and it missed (27 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 61.2% and it missed (7 shots on target). We called No at 94.8% and it landed.

Match data Manchester City Coventry
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 15 12
Shots, 1st half 9 4
Shots, 2nd half 6 8
Shots on target 4 3
Corners 4 5
Yellow cards 1 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 7 17
Expected goals (xG) 2.19 1.49

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Manchester CityWin probability
75.9%
Top 3 convictions

Man City or draw92.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.09
Over 1.5 goals84.2%High probabilityPays @ 1.19
Over 2.5 goals63.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.57

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Manchester City heavy favourites at 76% when Manchester City meet Coventry in the Premier League on 5 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 64% with both teams to score at 50%. • As a promoted side, Coventry carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. • Recent form reads W4 D1 L1 for Manchester City against W0 D0 L2 for Coventry. For shots markets, Erling Haaland is the obvious watch at 1.8 on target per 90 in recent data. Team news worth noting: Manchester City have O'Reilly a doubt, Alleyne ruled out, Doku ruled out, Rodrigo ruled out. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.6%@ 2.35
Over 11.5 corners33.7%@ 2.97
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners52.3%@ 1.91
Both teams to score50.4%@ 1.98
Random finds

2-0 correct score11.7%@ 8.58
3-0 correct score9.6%@ 10.37
2-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.85

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Man City

75.9%

Draw

16.0%

Coventry

8.0%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.2%

High probability

Over 2.563.5%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes50.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.3%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.3%

Good chance

Over 10.542.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.533.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersManchester City59.3%Coventry30.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.6%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.538.5%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.2%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.2%2.563.5%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.563.5%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Manchester CityWDLWW
CoventryLL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Manchester CityCoventry
League position#1 of 20#17 of 20
Record W-D-L2-0-00-0-2
Current streakW2L2
Record, home vs away1-0-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.10 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Erling HaalandManchester City · key player
To score49.6%

@ 2.02

1+ on target82.0%

@ 1.22

2+ shots86.9%

@ 1.15

Shots/90 3.68SoT/90 1.78Goals/90 0.71
Taiwo AwoniyiCoventry · key player
To score11.0%

@ 9.09

1+ on target26.0%

@ 3.85

2+ shots14.7%

@ 6.80

Shots/90 2.71SoT/90 1.21Goals/90 0.47
Antoine SemenyoManchester City · in form
To score29.4%

@ 3.40

1+ on target65.5%

@ 1.53

2+ shots74.4%

@ 1.34

Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.36
Loum TchaounaCoventry · in form
To score5.3%

@ 18.87

1+ on target26.1%

@ 3.83

2+ shots23.6%

@ 4.24

Shots/90 2.2SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.13
Phil FodenManchester City · in form
To score19.7%

@ 5.08

1+ on target42.8%

@ 2.34

2+ shots54.5%

@ 1.83

Shots/90 2.58SoT/90 0.79Goals/90 0.31
Ethan PinnockCoventry · in form
To score8.0%

@ 12.50

1+ on target21.3%

@ 4.69

2+ shots7.3%

@ 13.70

Shots/90 0.48SoT/90 0.26Goals/90 0.09

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Manchester City win1.35
Draw6.04
Coventry win10.46
Both teams to score1.98

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.19
Over 2.5 goals1.58
Over 3.5 goals2.42
Over 4.5 goals4.31
Manchester City most1.35
Coventry most10.46

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.51
Over 9.5 corners1.84
Over 10.5 corners2.33
Manchester City most1.68
Coventry most3.23

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.94
Over 4.5 cards3.11
Over 5.5 cards5.66
Manchester City most3.31
Coventry most2.05

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.63
Over 8.5 SoT2.03
Over 9.5 SoT2.64
Manchester City most1.63
Coventry most3.65

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.62
Over 24.5 shots2.00
Over 26.5 shots2.60
Over 28.5 shots3.55
Manchester City most1.50
Coventry most3.57

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.92
Over 22.5 fouls2.78
Over 24.5 fouls4.47

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • O'ReillyManchester CityDoubtful75% to play
  • AlleyneManchester CityOut0% to play
  • DokuManchester CityOut0% to play
  • RodrigoManchester CityOut0% to play
  • ReijndersManchester CityOut0% to play
  • EcheverriManchester CityOut0% to play
  • PhillipsManchester CityOut0% to play
  • MukasaManchester CityOut0% to play
  • MongaManchester CityOut0% to play
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.7% Over 7.5 61.2% Over 8.5 49.2% Over 9.5 37.9%
Most: Manchester City 61.4% Most: Coventry 27.4%
Manchester City Over 4.2 55.0% Coventry Over 4.2 30.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.2% Over 3.5 51.6% Over 4.5 32.2%
Most: Manchester City 30.2% Most: Coventry 48.9%
Manchester City Over 1.8 48.7% Coventry Over 1.8 62.3%

Manchester City: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Erling Haaland 3.68 1.78 0.71 82.0% 86.9% 49.6%
Antoine Semenyo 2.75 1.1 0.36 65.5% 74.4% 29.4%
Phil Foden 2.58 0.79 0.31 42.8% 54.5% 19.7%
Mathis Cherki 2.37 0.78 0.31 41.0% 47.6% 18.9%
Enzo Fernández 1.89 0.76 0.24 50.5% 52.2% 19.9%

Coventry: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Taiwo Awoniyi 2.71 1.21 0.47 26.0% 14.7% 11.0%
Loum Tchaouna 2.2 0.72 0.13 26.1% 23.6% 5.3%
Ethan Pinnock 0.48 0.26 0.09 21.3% 7.3% 8.0%
Frank Onyeka 0.76 0.19 0 14.3% 12.7% 0.0%
Aurèle Amenda 0.54 0.09 0 5.6% 4.7% 0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Manchester City clean sheet 43.5%
Coventry clean sheet 8.4%
Manchester City win to nil 39.3%
Coventry win to nil 4.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 73.9% draw 16.6% away 9.6%
double_chance
1X 90.4% 12 83.5% X2 26.1%
dnb
home 88.5% away 11.5%
btts
yes 50.4% no 49.6%
clean_sheet
home 45.3% away 8.4%
win_to_nil
home 41.2% away 4.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.8% home_by_2 21.4% home_by_3plus 30.7%
away_by_1 6.7% away_by_2 2.2% away_by_3plus 0.6%
correct_score
0-0 4.2% 0-1 2.6% 0-2 1.2%
0-3 0.3% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 9.0% 1-1 7.8% 1-2 3.0%
1-3 0.8% 1-4 0.2% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 11.7% 2-1 9.2% 2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.0% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 9.6% 3-1 7.6% 3-2 3.0%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 6.0% 4-1 4.7% 4-2 1.9%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 3.0% 5-1 2.4% 5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 4.1%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 11.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.8% under_0.5 4.2% over_1.5 84.2%
under_1.5 15.9% over_2.5 63.5% under_2.5 36.5%
over_3.5 41.3% under_3.5 58.7% over_4.5 23.2%
under_4.5 76.8% over_5.5 11.4% under_5.5 88.6%
odd_even
odd 49.2% even 50.8%
team_home
over_0.5 91.6% under_0.5 8.4% over_1.5 70.8%
under_1.5 29.2% over_2.5 45.1% under_2.5 54.9%
team_away
over_0.5 54.7% under_0.5 45.3% over_1.5 18.8%
under_1.5 81.2% over_2.5 4.6% under_2.5 95.4%
most
home 73.9% draw 16.6% away 9.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.7% away_+2.5 69.3% home_-1.5 52.1%
away_+1.5 47.9% home_-0.5 73.9% away_+0.5 26.1%
home_+0.5 90.4% away_-0.5 9.6% home_+1.5 97.2%
away_-1.5 2.8% home_+2.5 99.4% away_-2.5 0.6%
total_exact
exact_0 4.2% exact_1 11.7% exact_2 20.7%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 18.1% exact_5 11.9%
exact_6 6.5% exact_7plus 4.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 62.7% draw 30.1% away 7.2%
total
over_0.5 77.3% under_0.5 22.7% over_1.5 43.6%
under_1.5 56.4% over_2.5 18.7% under_2.5 81.3%
btts
yes 15.3% no 84.7%
total_exact
exact_0 22.7% exact_1 33.7% exact_2 25.0%
exact_3 12.3% exact_4plus 6.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 52.9% draw 32.0% away 15.1%
total
over_0.5 80.3% under_0.5 19.8% over_1.5 48.2%
under_1.5 51.8% over_2.5 22.2% under_2.5 77.8%
btts
yes 25.7% no 74.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 57.2% H/D 4.5% H/A 1.1%
D/H 15.9% D/D 9.6% D/A 4.5%
A/H 1.6% A/D 2.0% A/A 3.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.6% under_7.5 23.4% over_8.5 66.0%
under_8.5 34.0% over_9.5 54.5% under_9.5 45.5%
over_10.5 43.0% under_10.5 57.0% over_11.5 32.5%
under_11.5 67.5% over_12.5 23.5% under_12.5 76.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.8% under_3.5 22.3% over_4.5 64.3%
under_4.5 35.7% over_5.5 50.1% under_5.5 49.9%
team_away
over_3.5 59.0% under_3.5 41.0% over_4.5 42.4%
under_4.5 57.6% over_5.5 28.2% under_5.5 71.8%
most
home 59.5% draw 9.5% away 31.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.2% away_+3.5 69.8% home_-1.5 49.4%
away_+1.5 50.6% home_-0.5 59.5% away_+0.5 40.5%
home_+0.5 69.0% away_-0.5 31.0% home_+1.5 77.4%
away_-1.5 22.6% home_+3.5 89.6% away_-3.5 10.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.6% under_22.5 38.4% over_24.5 49.9%
under_24.5 50.1% over_26.5 38.5% under_26.5 61.5%
over_28.5 28.2% under_28.5 71.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.4% under_10.5 25.6% over_12.5 59.8%
under_12.5 40.2% over_14.5 44.8% under_14.5 55.2%
team_away
over_10.5 48.0% under_10.5 52.0% over_12.5 31.6%
under_12.5 68.4% over_14.5 19.0% under_14.5 81.0%
most
home 66.7% draw 5.2% away 28.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 43.5% away_+4.5 56.6% home_-2.5 55.3%
away_+2.5 44.7% home_-0.5 66.7% away_+0.5 33.3%
home_+0.5 72.0% away_-0.5 28.1% home_+2.5 81.1%
away_-2.5 19.0% home_+4.5 88.0% away_-4.5 12.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.7% under_6.5 27.3% over_7.5 61.2%
under_7.5 38.8% over_8.5 49.3% under_8.5 50.7%
over_9.5 37.9% under_9.5 62.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.5% under_3.5 29.5% over_4.5 55.0%
under_4.5 45.0% over_5.5 40.0% under_5.5 60.0%
team_away
over_3.5 46.9% under_3.5 53.1% over_4.5 30.1%
under_4.5 69.9% over_5.5 17.7% under_5.5 82.3%
most
home 61.4% draw 11.2% away 27.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 37.4% away_+2.5 62.6% home_-0.5 61.4%
away_+0.5 38.6% home_+0.5 72.6% away_-0.5 27.4%
home_+2.5 88.8% away_-2.5 11.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.2% under_2.5 27.8% over_3.5 51.6%
under_3.5 48.4% over_4.5 32.2% under_4.5 67.8%
over_5.5 17.7% under_5.5 82.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 48.7% under_1.5 51.3% over_2.5 22.6%
under_2.5 77.4%
team_away
over_1.5 62.3% under_1.5 37.7% over_2.5 35.3%
under_2.5 64.7%
most
home 30.2% draw 20.9% away 48.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 14.5% away_+1.5 85.5% home_-0.5 30.2%
away_+0.5 69.8% home_+0.5 51.1% away_-0.5 48.9%
home_+1.5 71.3% away_-1.5 28.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 52.2% under_20.5 47.8% over_22.5 36.0%
under_22.5 64.0% over_24.5 22.4% under_24.5 77.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 51.4% under_9.5 48.6% over_11.5 28.7%
under_11.5 71.3% over_13.5 13.1% under_13.5 86.9%
team_away
over_9.5 66.5% under_9.5 33.5% over_11.5 43.8%
under_11.5 56.2% over_13.5 24.1% under_13.5 75.9%
most
home 34.9% draw 8.1% away 57.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 15.4% away_+3.5 84.6% home_-0.5 34.9%
away_+0.5 65.1% home_+2.5 59.8% away_-2.5 40.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 5.3% no 94.8%
home
yes 1.4% no 98.6%
away
yes 3.9% no 96.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Manchester City predictions · Coventry predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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