AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Serie A
FrosinoneFrosinoneDWLWD
Thu, 29 Oct 202629/1017:30UK14°C · Clearing
LecceLecceWLLWL

Frosinone vs Lecce shots prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined56.1%
Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined44%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 24.5 shots56.1%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Frosinone.

What the model expects

The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.

Treat as a range

Model expected shots and shots on target, Frosinone vs Lecce
Model expects Shots On target
Frosinone 14.0 5.0
Lecce 11.8 4.0
Both teams 25.8 9.0

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 67.7% 32.4%
24.5 shots 56.1% 44.0%
26.5 shots 44.2% 55.8%
28.5 shots 33.1% 66.9%

Who takes more shots

Frosinone
60.2%
Level
5.7%
Lecce
34.1%

Team shots lines

Frosinone

Over 10.5
74.8%
Over 12.5
59.7%
Over 14.5
44.0%

Lecce

Over 10.5
58.2%
Over 12.5
40.8%
Over 14.5
26.1%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Treat as a range

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 74.4% 25.6%
7.5 shots on target 63.6% 36.4%
8.5 shots on target 52.2% 47.8%
9.5 shots on target 41.3% 58.7%

Who has more on target

Frosinone
54.5%
Level
11.3%
Lecce
34.2%

Team shots on target lines

Frosinone

Over 3.5
67.7%
Over 4.5
52.3%
Over 5.5
37.9%

Lecce

Over 3.5
54.1%
Over 4.5
37.5%
Over 5.5
24.2%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Frosinone's; Lecce gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Frosinone line Frosinone Lecce
-4.5 36.6% 63.4%
-2.5 48.3% 51.7%
-0.5 60.2% 39.8%
+0.5 65.9% 34.1%

Player shots

Model probabilities for each listed player: two or more shots, and at least one shot on target. They come from the player's own shots per 90 minutes this season, scaled to the minutes he has averaged, and they assume he plays. Shots /90 is his recorded rate. Players reported out or suspended are left out. Not bookmaker odds.

Frosinone player shots
Frosinone 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Antonio Raimondo 73.2% 63.1% 3.44
Giacomo Calo 62.8% 52.7% 2.19
Gabriele Bracaglia 26.3% 46.4% 1.12
Giorgi Kvernadze 78.2% 46.2% 3.06
Romano Schmid 47.2% 43.7% 1.63
Lecce player shots
Lecce 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Konan N’Dri 21.7% 23.0% 3.13
Willem Geubbels 41.2% 36.2% 2.80
Medon Berisha 46.5% 27.3% 2.61
Nikola Stulic 24.5% 24.0% 1.73
Mohamed Kaba 11.4% 19.8% 1.12

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: Frosinone in their home matches and Lecce in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only Frosinone's home matches and Lecce's away matches.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

Last six at home and away: Frosinone's last six home league matches and Lecce's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.

FrosinoneFrosinone

Recorded 2026/27

LecceLecce
This season
Statistic
Frosinone
Lecce
Shots per game
18.3
11.8

Shots faced per game
19.9
14.4

Shots on target per game
6.1
4.6

On target faced per game
6.1
6.0

Matches with more shots
37.5%
37.5%

Matches
8
8
Frosinone at home, Lecce away
Statistic
Frosinone
Lecce
Shots per game
16.8
11.3

Shots faced per game
19.0
15.8

Shots on target per game
6.5
5.5

On target faced per game
5.8
5.5

Matches
4
4
By half, this season
Statistic
Frosinone
Lecce
1st-half shots
7.3
4.3

2nd-half shots
10.9
7.5

1st-half shots faced
11.6
6.1

2nd-half shots faced
8.3
8.3

1st-half shots on target
2.9
1.0 (7)

2nd-half shots on target
3.3
2.7 (7)

1st-half on target faced
3.4
3.7 (7)

2nd-half on target faced
2.8
2.9 (7)

Matches
8
8
By half, at home and away
Statistic
Frosinone
Lecce
1st-half shots
8.5
5.5

2nd-half shots
8.0
5.8

1st-half shots faced
10.3
5.8

2nd-half shots faced
8.8
10.0

1st-half shots on target
4.0
1.0 (3)

2nd-half shots on target
2.5
2.7 (3)

1st-half on target faced
3.0
2.7 (3)

2nd-half on target faced
2.8
4.0 (3)

Matches
4
4
Last six league matches
Statistic
Frosinone
Lecce
Shots per game
20.5
12.5

Shots faced per game
19.0
13.3

Shots on target per game
6.8
4.8

On target faced per game
6.7
5.5

1st-half shots
8.0
4.8

2nd-half shots
12.3
7.7

1st-half shots faced
11.2
5.7

2nd-half shots faced
7.8
7.8

Matches
6
6
Last six at home and away
Statistic
Frosinone
Lecce
Shots per game
17.5
10.5

Shots faced per game
16.7
15.8

Shots on target per game
6.5
5.3

On target faced per game
5.5
5.8

Matches
6
6

League average per match: 29.2 shots, 9.9 on target, 12.8 in the 1st half, 16.4 in the 2nd half.

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0366Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 13,109 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 57.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.0%✗ 57.4%✓ 56.9%✗ 58.7%✓ 55.2%✗ 56.2%✓ 65.6%✓ 63.0%✗ 57.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 24.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 24.5 52.0%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 24.5 57.4%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 24.5 56.9%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 24.5 58.7%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 56.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 67.7% for over 22.5 to 33.1% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.2%. Head to head on shots, Frosinone are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.2%, with a level count at 5.7%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Frosinone over 12.5 shots sits at 59.7% and Lecce at 40.8%. This season Frosinone have averaged 18.3 shots a game and Lecce 11.8. Frosinone take 7.3 shots before half-time and 10.9 after, Lecce 4.3 and 7.5.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

56.1%Over 24.5 shots
60.2%Most shots: Frosinone
59.7%Frosinone over 12.5 shots
40.8%Lecce over 12.5 shots
63.6%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.1% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderFrosinone are the pick to have more shots at 60.2%, the side controlling territory usually gets the attempts.
The Clock WatcherFrosinone average 7.3 shots in the first half and 10.9 in the second, so their volume builds as the game opens up.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 26.5 shots: over sits at 44.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many shots in Frosinone vs Lecce?
The model expects about 14.0 shots for Frosinone and 11.8 for Lecce, 25.8 in total, and rates over 24.5 total shots at 56.1%.
How many shots on target in Frosinone vs Lecce?
The model expects about 5.0 shots on target for Frosinone and 4.0 for Lecce, and rates over 7.5 shots on target at 63.6%.
Which team will have more shots in Frosinone vs Lecce?
The model rates Frosinone to take more shots at 60.2%.
How many shots do Lecce take away from home?
Lecce have taken 11.3 shots per game and faced 15.8 across 4 recorded away league matches this season.
Do Frosinone shoot more in the first or second half?
Frosinone average 7.3 shots before half-time and 10.9 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Serie AFrosinone fixtures and statsLecce fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.