League TwoFleetwood Town vs Rochdale Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Home or Draw at 81.3%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Fleetwood Town are favoured at 55.5%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town by 1 | 25.0% |
| Fleetwood Town by 2 | 17.3% |
| Fleetwood Town by 3+ | 13.2% |
| Rochdale by 1 | 12.6% |
| Rochdale by 2 | 4.6% |
| Rochdale by 3+ | 1.4% |
| Draw | 25.8% |
Goal handicap
| Fleetwood Town line | Fleetwood Town | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 13.2% | 86.9% |
| -1.5 | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| -0.5 | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| +0.5 | 81.3% | 18.7% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2Fleetwood Town goals scored per game0.7Fleetwood Town goals conceded per game0.8Rochdale goals scored per game1.7Rochdale goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Fleetwood Town or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
46.4%Both Teams to Score45.0%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Fleetwood Town are favoured at 55.5%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale at 81.3%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Fleetwood Town at 74.8% and Rochdale at 25.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,075 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
