Bundesliga
Dortmund vs 
Werder Bremen Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 52.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 76.9% for over 7.5 to 22.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.2%. On the corner count, Dortmund are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 63.8%, with a level count at 9.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.9% | 23.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 31.7% | 68.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 22.5% | 77.5% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
80.6%
67.4%
52.8%
56.4%
39.0%
24.6%
Corner handicap
| Dortmund line | Dortmund | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 32.5% | 67.6% |
| -1.5 | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| -0.5 | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| +0.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Dortmund.
In-depth analysis
54.2%Over 9.5 corners67.4%Dortmund over 4.5 corners39.0%Werder Bremen over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Dortmund over 4.5 corners sits at 67.4% and Werder Bremen at 39.0%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 54.2% for Dortmund vs Werder Bremen.
Which team will win the corner count in Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
The model rates Dortmund to win the corner count at 63.8%, with a level count at 9.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Bundesliga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
