Primeira Liga
Famalicao vs 
Gil Vicente Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 58.9% and it landed (14 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 53.3% and it missed (2 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 41.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 53.2% for over 22.5 to 20.8% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.2%. Head to head on shots, Famalicao are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.8%, with a level count at 6.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 20.8% | 79.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
64.8%
48.2%
32.9%
48.3%
31.5%
18.6%
Shot handicap
| Famalicao line | Famalicao | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| -2.5 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| -0.5 | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| +0.5 | 64.8% | 35.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 40.5% | 59.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 29.1% | 70.9% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Famalicao.
In-depth analysis
41.1%Over 24.5 shots48.2%Famalicao over 12.5 shots31.5%Gil Vicente over 12.5 shots53.3%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Famalicao over 12.5 shots sits at 48.2% and Gil Vicente at 31.5%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Famalicao vs Gil Vicente?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 41.1% for Famalicao vs Gil Vicente.
Which team will have more shots in Famalicao vs Gil Vicente?
Before kickoff, the model rated Famalicao to take more shots at 58.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.