Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor: model prediction
Süper LigKonyaspor or draw
Under 2.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Konyaspor at 42.9%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 64.9% and it missed (3 goals). We called No at 58.0% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Konyaspor versus Kocaelispor on 29 August 2026 tilts towards Konyaspor in our numbers (43%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Konyaspor higher (49%) than our model does. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 35% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 42%. The run in: Konyaspor arrive W1 D0 L5, Kocaelispor W1 D1 L4. The recent series reads 1 wins for Konyaspor, 0 draws and 1 for Kocaelispor over 2 games, 4.0 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.022 <= 0).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
42.9%-6.4%
30.7%+3.9%
26.4%+2.6%
conservative EV -0.022 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Konyaspor 1 · 0 draws · Kocaelispor 1 · 4.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Konyaspor
KocaelisporBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 63.8% | Over 7.5 | 50.6% | Over 8.5 | 38.0% | Over 9.5 | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Konyaspor | 57.2% | Most: Kocaelispor | 30.1% | ||||
| Konyaspor Over 4.2 | 44.6% | Kocaelispor Over 4.2 | 25.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 83.0% | Over 3.5 | 66.3% | Over 4.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Konyaspor | 38.2% | Most: Kocaelispor | 42.5% | ||
| Konyaspor Over 1.8 | 64.7% | Kocaelispor Over 1.8 | 67.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Konyaspor clean sheet | 41.0% |
|---|---|
| Kocaelispor clean sheet | 29.8% |
| Konyaspor win to nil | 28.1% |
| Kocaelispor win to nil | 16.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 42.9% | draw | 30.7% | away | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 73.6% | 12 | 69.3% | X2 | 57.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 61.9% | away | 38.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 42.0% | no | 58.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 41.1% | away | 29.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 28.2% | away | 16.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.7% | home_by_2 | 12.7% | home_by_3plus | 6.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.2% | away_by_2 | 6.8% | away_by_3plus | 2.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 12.9% | 0-1 | 10.2% | 0-2 | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 14.2% | 1-1 | 13.8% | 1-2 | 5.9% |
| 1-3 | 1.7% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.0% | 2-1 | 8.0% | 2-2 | 3.6% |
| 2-3 | 1.1% | 2-4 | 0.2% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 3.6% | 3-1 | 3.2% | 3-2 | 1.4% |
| 3-3 | 0.4% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.1% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.1% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 14.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 87.1% | under_0.5 | 12.9% | over_1.5 | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 37.3% | over_2.5 | 35.1% | under_2.5 | 64.9% |
| over_3.5 | 16.2% | under_3.5 | 83.9% | over_4.5 | 6.2% |
| under_4.5 | 93.8% | over_5.5 | 2.1% | under_5.5 | 98.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 47.9% | even | 52.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 70.2% | under_0.5 | 29.8% | over_1.5 | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.9% | over_2.5 | 12.3% | under_2.5 | 87.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 58.9% | under_0.5 | 41.1% | over_1.5 | 22.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 77.6% | over_2.5 | 6.1% | under_2.5 | 93.9% |
most
| home | 42.9% | draw | 30.7% | away | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.5% | away_+2.5 | 93.5% | home_-1.5 | 19.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 80.9% | home_-0.5 | 42.9% | away_+0.5 | 57.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.6% | away_-0.5 | 26.4% | home_+1.5 | 90.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.2% | home_+2.5 | 97.7% | away_-2.5 | 2.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 12.9% | exact_1 | 24.4% | exact_2 | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 18.9% | exact_4 | 9.9% | exact_5 | 4.2% |
| exact_6 | 1.5% | exact_7plus | 0.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.9% | draw | 49.6% | away | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 58.8% | under_0.5 | 41.2% | over_1.5 | 22.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 77.7% | over_2.5 | 6.1% | under_2.5 | 93.9% |
btts
| yes | 12.7% | no | 87.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 41.2% | exact_1 | 36.5% | exact_2 | 16.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 4.8% | exact_4plus | 1.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.3% | draw | 41.4% | away | 22.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.0% | under_0.5 | 30.0% | over_1.5 | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.1% | over_2.5 | 12.2% | under_2.5 | 87.8% |
btts
| yes | 19.8% | no | 80.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 23.6% | H/D | 4.2% | H/A | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 18.0% | D/D | 20.5% | D/A | 11.0% |
| A/H | 2.0% | A/D | 4.8% | A/A | 14.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 67.7% | under_7.5 | 32.3% | over_8.5 | 55.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 44.6% | over_9.5 | 43.1% | under_9.5 | 57.0% |
| over_10.5 | 31.8% | under_10.5 | 68.2% | over_11.5 | 22.4% |
| under_11.5 | 77.6% | over_12.5 | 15.0% | under_12.5 | 85.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.6% | under_3.5 | 30.4% | over_4.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.3% | over_5.5 | 38.5% | under_5.5 | 61.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.8% | under_3.5 | 43.2% | over_4.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.4% | over_5.5 | 25.5% | under_5.5 | 74.6% |
most
| home | 53.7% | draw | 10.9% | away | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.9% | away_+3.5 | 77.1% | home_-1.5 | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.5% | home_-0.5 | 53.7% | away_+0.5 | 46.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.6% | away_-0.5 | 35.4% | home_+1.5 | 74.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.6% | home_+3.5 | 88.8% | away_-3.5 | 11.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 60.4% | under_22.5 | 39.6% | over_24.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 51.9% | over_26.5 | 36.3% | under_26.5 | 63.7% |
| over_28.5 | 25.8% | under_28.5 | 74.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.2% | under_10.5 | 27.8% | over_12.5 | 56.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 43.8% | over_14.5 | 40.3% | under_14.5 | 59.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.4% | under_10.5 | 49.6% | over_12.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.1% | over_14.5 | 19.5% | under_14.5 | 80.5% |
most
| home | 63.2% | draw | 5.8% | away | 31.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 38.6% | away_+4.5 | 61.4% | home_-2.5 | 50.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 49.1% | home_-0.5 | 63.2% | away_+0.5 | 36.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.9% | away_-0.5 | 31.1% | home_+2.5 | 79.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 20.9% | home_+4.5 | 86.9% | away_-4.5 | 13.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 63.8% | under_6.5 | 36.2% | over_7.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 49.4% | over_8.5 | 38.0% | under_8.5 | 62.0% |
| over_9.5 | 27.0% | under_9.5 | 73.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 62.0% | under_3.5 | 38.0% | over_4.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.4% | over_5.5 | 29.5% | under_5.5 | 70.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 42.4% | under_3.5 | 57.6% | over_4.5 | 25.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 74.4% | over_5.5 | 14.0% | under_5.5 | 86.1% |
most
| home | 57.2% | draw | 12.7% | away | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 31.2% | away_+2.5 | 68.8% | home_-0.5 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 42.8% | home_+0.5 | 70.0% | away_-0.5 | 30.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.5% | away_-2.5 | 11.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 83.0% | under_2.5 | 17.0% | over_3.5 | 66.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 33.7% | over_4.5 | 47.4% | under_4.5 | 52.6% |
| over_5.5 | 30.3% | under_5.5 | 69.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 64.7% | under_1.5 | 35.3% | over_2.5 | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 67.5% | under_1.5 | 32.5% | over_2.5 | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 58.9% |
most
| home | 38.2% | draw | 19.3% | away | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.6% | away_+1.5 | 78.4% | home_-0.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.8% | home_+0.5 | 57.5% | away_-0.5 | 42.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.0% | away_-1.5 | 25.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 88.0% | under_20.5 | 12.0% | over_22.5 | 78.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 21.7% | over_24.5 | 65.8% | under_24.5 | 34.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 84.4% | under_9.5 | 15.6% | over_11.5 | 67.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.4% | over_13.5 | 47.4% | under_13.5 | 52.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 84.5% | under_9.5 | 15.5% | over_11.5 | 67.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.3% | over_13.5 | 47.6% | under_13.5 | 52.4% |
most
| home | 46.3% | draw | 7.2% | away | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.1% | away_+3.5 | 73.9% | home_-0.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 53.7% | home_+2.5 | 67.5% | away_-2.5 | 32.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 9.0% | no | 91.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.4% | no | 96.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.8% | no | 94.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Konyaspor predictions · Kocaelispor predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets