Famalicao vs Gil Vicente prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Famalicao vs Gil Vicente: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga
Famalicao

DWDLL

Full time0-0Sun, 30 Aug 202620:30UK
Gil Vicente

DLLWW

Model’s top convictions

71%

Famalicao or draw

66%

Over 1.5 goals

62%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Famalicao 0-0 Gil Vicente
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Famalicao at 41.3%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 61.7% and it landed (0 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 65.7% and it missed (0 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 81.5% and it landed (0 goals). We called No at 54.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 59.8% and it missed. We called Yes at 71.1% and it missed. We called Under 9.5 at 51.4% and it landed (9 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 67.9% and it landed (6 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 58.9% and it landed (14 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 53.3% and it missed (2 shots on target). We called No at 84.6% and it landed.

Match data Famalicao Gil Vicente
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 7 7
Shots on target 1 1
Corners 6 3
Yellow cards 2 4
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 10 19

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
FamalicaoWin probability
41.3%
Top 3 convictions

Famalicao or draw71.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Over 1.5 goals65.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.52
Under 2.5 goals61.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Famalicao at 41% for 30 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 44%. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 38% with both teams to score at 45%. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Famalicao, 2 draws and 1 for Gil Vicente at 2.4 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Famalicao W1 D3 L2, Gil Vicente W3 D1 L2. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.017 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.4%@ 2.11
Over 2.5 goals38.3%@ 2.61
Over 10.5 corners38.0%@ 2.63
Medium risk

Draw or Gil Vicente58.8%@ 1.70
Over 8.5 corners57.5%@ 1.74
Not both teams to score54.9%@ 1.82
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.9%@ 7.22
1-0 correct score12.8%@ 7.84
0-0 correct score11.5%@ 8.67

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Famalicao

41.3%-2.5%

Draw

30.0%+1.7%

Gil Vicente

28.8%+0.9%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.017 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.565.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.538.3%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes45.1%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.557.5%

Good chance

Over 9.547.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.7%

Low chance

Most cornersFamalicao50.2%Gil Vicente39.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.553.2%

Good chance

Over 24.541.1%

Toss-up

Over 26.530.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.520.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.565.7%2.538.3%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.565.7%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

FamalicaoDWDLL
Gil VicenteDLLWW

Last 5 meetings: Famalicao 2 · 2 draws · Gil Vicente 1 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-02-01Gil Vicente 5-0 Famalicao
2025-08-24Famalicao 0-0 Gil Vicente
2025-02-17Gil Vicente 0-2 Famalicao
2024-09-14Famalicao 1-1 Gil Vicente
2024-03-29Gil Vicente 1-2 Famalicao

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

FamalicaoGil Vicente
League position#14 of 18#6 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-22-0-0
Current streakL2W2
Record, home vs away0-0-1·
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.79 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Famalicao win2.152.42
Draw3.253.33
Gil Vicente win3.303.47
Over 2.5 goals2.252.61
Under 2.5 goals1.621.62

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Famalicao win2.42
Draw3.33
Gil Vicente win3.48
Both teams to score2.22

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.13
Over 1.5 goals1.52
Over 2.5 goals2.61
Over 3.5 goals5.40
Famalicao most2.42
Gil Vicente most3.48

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.41
Over 8.5 corners1.67
Over 9.5 corners2.06
Over 10.5 corners2.65
Famalicao most1.99
Gil Vicente most2.53

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.19
Over 3.5 cards1.47
Over 4.5 cards2.03
Over 5.5 cards3.13
Famalicao most2.63
Gil Vicente most2.33

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.51
Over 7.5 SoT1.88
Over 8.5 SoT2.47
Over 9.5 SoT3.44
Famalicao most1.87
Gil Vicente most2.98

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.88
Over 24.5 shots2.44
Over 26.5 shots3.33
Over 28.5 shots4.81
Famalicao most1.70
Gil Vicente most2.84

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.11
Over 22.5 fouls1.22
Over 24.5 fouls1.38
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.4% Over 7.5 53.3% Over 8.5 40.4% Over 9.5 29.1%
Most: Famalicao 53.4% Most: Gil Vicente 33.6%
Famalicao Over 4.2 43.8% Gil Vicente Over 4.2 29.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 84.1% Over 3.5 67.9% Over 4.5 49.3%
Most: Famalicao 38.0% Most: Gil Vicente 42.9%
Famalicao Over 1.8 65.7% Gil Vicente Over 1.8 68.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Famalicao clean sheet 37.3%
Gil Vicente clean sheet 29.0%
Famalicao win to nil 25.7%
Gil Vicente win to nil 17.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.3% draw 30.0% away 28.8%
double_chance
1X 71.2% 12 70.0% X2 58.8%
dnb
home 58.9% away 41.1%
btts
yes 45.1% no 54.9%
clean_sheet
home 37.4% away 29.1%
win_to_nil
home 25.8% away 17.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.7% home_by_2 12.2% home_by_3plus 6.3%
away_by_1 18.0% away_by_2 7.8% away_by_3plus 3.0%
correct_score
0-0 11.5% 0-1 10.0% 0-2 5.3%
0-3 1.7% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 12.8% 1-1 13.9% 1-2 6.5%
1-3 2.2% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 8.3% 2-1 8.2% 2-2 4.0%
2-3 1.3% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.4% 3-1 3.4% 3-2 1.7%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.1% 4-1 1.0% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 88.5% under_0.5 11.5% over_1.5 65.7%
under_1.5 34.3% over_2.5 38.3% under_2.5 61.7%
over_3.5 18.5% under_3.5 81.5% over_4.5 7.5%
under_4.5 92.5% over_5.5 2.6% under_5.5 97.4%
odd_even
odd 48.1% even 51.9%
team_home
over_0.5 70.9% under_0.5 29.1% over_1.5 35.0%
under_1.5 65.0% over_2.5 12.8% under_2.5 87.2%
team_away
over_0.5 62.6% under_0.5 37.4% over_1.5 25.9%
under_1.5 74.1% over_2.5 7.8% under_2.5 92.2%
most
home 41.3% draw 30.0% away 28.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.3% away_+2.5 93.7% home_-1.5 18.5%
away_+1.5 81.5% home_-0.5 41.3% away_+0.5 58.8%
home_+0.5 71.2% away_-0.5 28.8% home_+1.5 89.2%
away_-1.5 10.8% home_+2.5 97.0% away_-2.5 3.0%
total_exact
exact_0 11.5% exact_1 22.8% exact_2 27.4%
exact_3 19.8% exact_4 11.0% exact_5 4.9%
exact_6 1.8% exact_7plus 0.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.4% draw 49.0% away 25.6%
total
over_0.5 59.8% under_0.5 40.2% over_1.5 23.2%
under_1.5 76.8% over_2.5 6.5% under_2.5 93.5%
btts
yes 13.4% no 86.6%
total_exact
exact_0 40.2% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 16.7%
exact_3 5.1% exact_4plus 1.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.9% draw 40.4% away 20.7%
total
over_0.5 71.1% under_0.5 28.9% over_1.5 35.2%
under_1.5 64.8% over_2.5 12.9% under_2.5 87.1%
btts
yes 20.2% no 79.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.0% H/D 3.5% H/A 0.9%
D/H 19.1% D/D 19.8% D/A 10.1%
A/H 2.7% A/D 5.8% A/A 17.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 71.2% under_7.5 28.8% over_8.5 60.1%
under_8.5 39.9% over_9.5 48.6% under_9.5 51.4%
over_10.5 37.8% under_10.5 62.2% over_11.5 28.2%
under_11.5 71.8% over_12.5 20.2% under_12.5 79.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.9% under_3.5 31.1% over_4.5 54.0%
under_4.5 46.0% over_5.5 39.9% under_5.5 60.2%
team_away
over_3.5 61.6% under_3.5 38.4% over_4.5 45.8%
under_4.5 54.2% over_5.5 31.9% under_5.5 68.2%
most
home 50.3% draw 10.1% away 39.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.6% away_+3.5 77.4% home_-1.5 40.2%
away_+1.5 59.8% home_-0.5 50.3% away_+0.5 49.7%
home_+0.5 60.5% away_-0.5 39.5% home_+1.5 69.9%
away_-1.5 30.1% home_+3.5 84.8% away_-3.5 15.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 53.2% under_22.5 46.8% over_24.5 41.1%
under_24.5 58.9% over_26.5 30.1% under_26.5 69.9%
over_28.5 20.8% under_28.5 79.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 64.8% under_10.5 35.2% over_12.5 48.2%
under_12.5 51.8% over_14.5 32.9% under_14.5 67.1%
team_away
over_10.5 48.3% under_10.5 51.7% over_12.5 31.5%
under_12.5 68.5% over_14.5 18.6% under_14.5 81.4%
most
home 58.8% draw 6.0% away 35.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.2% away_+4.5 65.8% home_-2.5 46.3%
away_+2.5 53.7% home_-0.5 58.8% away_+0.5 41.2%
home_+0.5 64.8% away_-0.5 35.2% home_+2.5 75.7%
away_-2.5 24.3% home_+4.5 84.4% away_-4.5 15.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.4% under_6.5 33.6% over_7.5 53.3%
under_7.5 46.7% over_8.5 40.5% under_8.5 59.6%
over_9.5 29.1% under_9.5 70.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 61.6% under_3.5 38.4% over_4.5 43.9%
under_4.5 56.2% over_5.5 28.5% under_5.5 71.5%
team_away
over_3.5 47.5% under_3.5 52.5% over_4.5 29.8%
under_4.5 70.2% over_5.5 16.9% under_5.5 83.1%
most
home 53.4% draw 13.1% away 33.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.9% away_+2.5 72.1% home_-0.5 53.4%
away_+0.5 46.6% home_+0.5 66.4% away_-0.5 33.6%
home_+2.5 86.4% away_-2.5 13.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 84.1% under_2.5 15.9% over_3.5 67.9%
under_3.5 32.1% over_4.5 49.3% under_4.5 50.7%
over_5.5 32.0% under_5.5 68.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 65.7% under_1.5 34.3% over_2.5 39.0%
under_2.5 61.0%
team_away
over_1.5 68.8% under_1.5 31.2% over_2.5 42.6%
under_2.5 57.4%
most
home 38.0% draw 19.1% away 42.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.6% away_+1.5 78.4% home_-0.5 38.0%
away_+0.5 62.0% home_+0.5 57.1% away_-0.5 42.9%
home_+1.5 74.5% away_-1.5 25.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 89.8% under_20.5 10.2% over_22.5 82.3%
under_22.5 17.7% over_24.5 72.3% under_24.5 27.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 86.1% under_9.5 13.9% over_11.5 72.5%
under_11.5 27.6% over_13.5 55.6% under_13.5 44.4%
team_away
over_9.5 84.5% under_9.5 15.5% over_11.5 70.0%
under_11.5 30.0% over_13.5 52.6% under_13.5 47.4%
most
home 48.9% draw 6.3% away 44.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.8% away_+3.5 69.2% home_-0.5 48.9%
away_+0.5 51.1% home_+2.5 67.3% away_-2.5 32.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 15.5% no 84.6%
home
yes 8.5% no 91.6%
away
yes 7.6% no 92.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Famalicao predictions · Gil Vicente predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Primeira LigaFamalicaoGil VicenteTrack record