Famalicao vs Gil Vicente prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

Primeira Liga

Famalicao vs Gil Vicente Both Teams to Score

2026-08-30 · 20:30
Both Teams to Score54.9%Both teams to score · No

Result

Famalicao 0-0 Gil Vicente
0 goals before half-time (Famalicao 0, Gil Vicente 0)
✓ No✕ Yes

We called No at 54.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 59.8% and it missed (0 in the match).

Best predictionBoth teams to score · No · 54.9%Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean. Calibrated, not a tip.
55%

model probability

ConvictionLean

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Both teams to score · No at 54.9%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. Recent output points the same way: Famalicao have averaged 0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Gil Vicente 0.8 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 38.3% for over 2.5 and 65.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Famalicao have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5, Gil Vicente in 1 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Both Teams to Score

Yes45.1%

★ ModelNo54.9%

Over 2.5 · context38.3%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

Famalicao scored

0.6

Famalicao conceded

0.8

Gil Vicente scored

0.8

Gil Vicente conceded

1.2

Each team to score

Famalicao to score70.9%

Famalicao 2+ goals35.0%

Gil Vicente to score62.6%

Gil Vicente 2+ goals25.9%

By half

Both score in 1st half13.4%

Both score in 2nd half20.2%

Goals distribution

The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.

11.5%

0

22.8%

1

27.4%

2

19.8%

3

11.0%

4

7.3%

5+

In-depth analysis

41.3%Favoured: Famalicao
45.1%Both Teams to Score
38.3%Over 2.5 goals

On the goals side, the model sees 38.3% for three or more goals and 65.7% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Famalicao favoured at 41.3%, a competitive game tends to open up.

These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 54.9% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianProjects a tighter, lower-scoring game from the 38.3% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutFamalicao are the model’s pick on the result at 41.3%, context for how the goals may flow.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Match outlook

Famalicao41.3%

Draw30.0%

Gil Vicente28.8%

The model leans Famalicao to win. See the full prediction →

Form & head-to-head

FamalicaoDWDLL
Gil VicenteDLLWW

Last 5 meetings: Famalicao 2 · 2 draws · Gil Vicente 1 · 2.4 goals/game.

Recent trends

FamalicaoBTTS 2/5Over 2.5 1/5
Gil VicenteBTTS 1/5Over 2.5 2/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Did both teams score in Famalicao vs Gil Vicente?
We rated Both Teams to Score at 45.1%. Both teams did not both score, final score 0-0.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0231Calibration error
55,318Matches graded

In 20,236 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 49.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✓ 52.9%✗ 51.9%✗ 59.3%✗ 50.6%✓ 52.6%✓ 51.6%✗ 51.1%✓ 58.9%✓ 62.2%✗ 52.0%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Yes 52.9%Hit
Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10No 51.9%Miss
Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Yes 59.3%Miss
Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Yes 50.6%Miss
Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09No 52.6%Hit

More Primeira Liga, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

Related

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.