Primeira Liga
Famalicao vs 
Alverca Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 41.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 53.5% for over 22.5 to 20.9% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.5%. Between the two sides, Famalicao are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.7%, with a level count at 5.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 20.9% | 79.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
66.8%
50.4%
35.0%
46.3%
29.5%
17.1%
Shot handicap
| Famalicao line | Famalicao | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| -2.5 | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| -0.5 | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| +0.5 | 67.6% | 32.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 67.9% | 32.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 30.3% | 69.7% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
9.2Famalicao shots per game12.0Famalicao shots faced per game10.0Alverca shots per game13.2Alverca shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Famalicao.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
41.3%Over 24.5 shots50.4%Famalicao over 12.5 shots29.5%Alverca over 12.5 shots54.9%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Famalicao over 12.5 shots sits at 50.4% and Alverca at 29.5%. This season Famalicao have averaged 9.2 shots a game and Alverca 10.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Famalicao vs Alverca?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 41.3% for Famalicao vs Alverca.
Which team will have more shots in Famalicao vs Alverca?
The model rates Famalicao to take more shots at 61.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
