Newcastle vs Hull prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Newcastle vs Hull: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Premier League
Newcastle

LDWDL

Sat, 19 Sep 202615:00UK17°C · Cloudy
Hull

LWWDD

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

81%

Newcastle or draw

62%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
NewcastleWin probability
58.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals80.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.24
Newcastle or draw80.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.24
Over 8.5 corners62.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.60

Model read

▾

"Newcastle or Hull? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Newcastle go into this Premier League meeting with Hull on 19 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 58%. No strong lean on goals (58% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The run in: Newcastle arrive W2 D2 L2, Hull W2 D2 L2. Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 1 wins for Newcastle, 1 draws and 0 for Hull, averaging 3.5 goals a game. Team news worth noting: Newcastle have N.Gonzalez a doubt, Jaouen a doubt, Burn ruled out, A.Murphy ruled out. Fatigue may matter, with Newcastle 3 days shorter on recovery than Hull. As a promoted side, Hull carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. One eye on the skies, with 29 km/h of wind in the forecast. For shots markets, Yoane Wissa is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.7%@ 2.34
Draw or Hull42.0%@ 2.38
Over 11.5 corners33.9%@ 2.95
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals58.2%@ 1.72
Both teams to score57.4%@ 1.74
Over 9.5 corners52.4%@ 1.91
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.8%@ 9.27
2-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.11
2-0 correct score9.0%@ 11.10

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Newcastle

58.0%

Draw

22.6%

Hull

19.4%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.580.9%

High probability

Over 2.558.2%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes57.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.4%

Good chance

Over 10.542.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.533.9%

Toss-up

Most cornersNewcastle54.7%Hull35.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.564.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.553.4%

Good chance

Over 26.542.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.531.5%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Newcastle10.2 taken18.7 faced
Hull9.7 taken14.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Newcastle (4 games)

4.2 / 6.0

Hull (4 games)

4.0 / 5.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.580.9%2.558.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.580.9%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

NewcastleLDWDL
HullLWWDD

Last 2 meetings: Newcastle 1 · 1 draws · Hull 0 · 3.5 goals/game.

2015-01-31Hull 0-3 Newcastle
2014-09-20Newcastle 2-2 Hull

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

NewcastleHull
League position#12 of 20#4 of 20
Record W-D-L1-2-12-2-0
Current streakL1D2
Record, home vs away0-2-01-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.85 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Yoane WissaNewcastle · key player
To score27.1%

@ 3.69

1+ on target54.0%

@ 1.85

2+ shots55.7%

@ 1.80

Shots/90 2.6SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.44
Robinio VazHull · key player
To score15.9%

@ 6.29

1+ on target24.1%

@ 4.15

2+ shots9.6%

@ 10.42

Shots/90 2.24SoT/90 1.19Goals/90 0.75
Matias Fernandez-PardoNewcastle · in form
To score20.8%

@ 4.81

1+ on target55.4%

@ 1.81

2+ shots52.2%

@ 1.92

Shots/90 2.32SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.31
Mohamed Ali-ChoHull · in form
To score11.1%

@ 9.01

1+ on target39.9%

@ 2.51

2+ shots39.1%

@ 2.56

Shots/90 1.96SoT/90 0.74Goals/90 0.17
Harvey BarnesNewcastle · in form
To score20.4%

@ 4.90

1+ on target45.3%

@ 2.21

2+ shots52.2%

@ 1.92

Shots/90 2.84SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.37
Oliver McBurnieHull · in form
To score8.6%

@ 11.63

1+ on target29.9%

@ 3.34

2+ shots23.1%

@ 4.33

Shots/90 1.51SoT/90 0.59Goals/90 0.15

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Newcastle win1.78
Draw4.33
Hull win4.81
Both teams to score1.74

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.24
Over 2.5 goals1.72
Over 3.5 goals2.79
Newcastle most1.78
Hull most4.81

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.51
Over 9.5 corners1.83
Over 10.5 corners2.31
Newcastle most1.82
Hull most2.83

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.29
Over 3.5 cards1.71
Over 4.5 cards2.55
Over 5.5 cards4.32
Newcastle most4.21
Hull most1.74

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.32
Over 7.5 SoT1.54
Over 8.5 SoT1.87
Over 9.5 SoT2.38
Newcastle most1.98
Hull most2.65

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.54
Over 24.5 shots1.87
Over 26.5 shots2.38
Over 28.5 shots3.17
Newcastle most1.74
Hull most2.72

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.65
Over 22.5 fouls2.25
Over 24.5 fouls3.38

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • N.GonzalezNewcastleDoubtful50% to play
  • JaouenNewcastleDoubtful50% to play
  • BurnNewcastleOut0% to play
  • A.MurphyNewcastleOut0% to play
  • ElangaNewcastleOut0% to play
  • J.RamseyNewcastleDoubtful25% to play
  • JoelintonNewcastleOut0% to play
  • WoltemadeNewcastleOut0% to play
  • OsulaNewcastleOut0% to play
  • NeaveNewcastleOut0% to play
  • ShaharNewcastleOut0% to play

What the absences carry

  • Nick WoltemadeNewcastle14.0%30.6 xG+xA in 3,700 min
  • Jacob MurphyNewcastle10.5%22.9 xG+xA in 4,047 min
  • Anthony ElangaNewcastle7.2%15.8 xG+xA in 3,808 min
  • William OsulaNewcastle2.8%6.1 xG+xA in 941 min

Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 64.8% Over 24.5 53.4% Over 26.5 42.1% Over 28.5 31.5%
Most: Newcastle 57.6% Most: Hull 36.8%
Newcastle Over 13.2 48.3% Hull Over 13.2 33.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 75.9% Over 7.5 65.0% Over 8.5 53.4% Over 9.5 42.0%
Most: Newcastle 50.5% Most: Hull 37.7%
Newcastle Over 4.2 50.5% Hull Over 4.2 41.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 77.7% Over 3.5 58.7% Over 4.5 39.1%
Most: Newcastle 23.7% Most: Hull 57.6%
Newcastle Over 1.8 47.4% Hull Over 1.8 71.4%

Newcastle: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Yoane Wissa 2.6 1.08 0.44 54.0% 55.7% 27.1%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo 2.32 1.07 0.31 55.4% 52.2% 20.8%
Harvey Barnes 2.84 0.98 0.37 45.3% 52.2% 20.4%
Bazoumana Touré 2.02 0.57 0.18 34.7% 44.5% 12.6%
Joe Willock 1.71 0.45 0.04 17.1% 16.0% 1.6%

Hull: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Robinio Vaz 2.24 1.19 0.75 24.1% 9.6% 15.9%
Mohamed Ali-Cho 1.96 0.74 0.17 39.9% 39.1% 11.1%
Oliver McBurnie 1.51 0.59 0.15 29.9% 23.1% 8.6%
Nobel Mendy 0.61 0.25 0.12 18.4% 8.9% 9.3%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy 0.63 0.17 0.06 12.4% 8.8% 4.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Newcastle clean sheet 32.9%
Hull clean sheet 14.6%
Newcastle win to nil 27.5%
Hull win to nil 9.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 56.1% draw 23.1% away 20.8%
double_chance
1X 79.2% 12 76.9% X2 43.9%
dnb
home 73.0% away 27.1%
btts
yes 57.4% no 42.6%
clean_sheet
home 33.4% away 14.6%
win_to_nil
home 28.0% away 9.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.9% home_by_2 17.3% home_by_3plus 15.9%
away_by_1 12.9% away_by_2 5.6% away_by_3plus 2.3%
correct_score
0-0 5.4% 0-1 4.8% 0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 8.9% 1-1 10.8% 1-2 5.6%
1-3 2.1% 1-4 0.6% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.0% 2-1 9.9% 2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.8% 3-1 6.4% 3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.8% 4-1 3.1% 4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.1% 5-1 1.2% 5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.6% under_0.5 5.4% over_1.5 80.9%
under_1.5 19.1% over_2.5 58.2% under_2.5 41.8%
over_3.5 35.8% under_3.5 64.2% over_4.5 18.9%
under_4.5 81.1% over_5.5 8.7% under_5.5 91.3%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 85.4% under_0.5 14.6% over_1.5 57.3%
under_1.5 42.7% over_2.5 30.3% under_2.5 69.7%
team_away
over_0.5 66.6% under_0.5 33.4% over_1.5 30.0%
under_1.5 70.0% over_2.5 9.9% under_2.5 90.1%
most
home 56.1% draw 23.1% away 20.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 15.9% away_+2.5 84.1% home_-1.5 33.2%
away_+1.5 66.8% home_-0.5 56.1% away_+0.5 43.9%
home_+0.5 79.2% away_-0.5 20.8% home_+1.5 92.1%
away_-1.5 8.0% home_+2.5 97.7% away_-2.5 2.3%
total_exact
exact_0 5.4% exact_1 13.7% exact_2 22.7%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.9% exact_5 10.2%
exact_6 5.2% exact_7plus 3.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.0% draw 38.6% away 32.4%
total
over_0.5 74.9% under_0.5 25.2% over_1.5 40.1%
under_1.5 59.9% over_2.5 16.2% under_2.5 83.8%
btts
yes 24.8% no 75.2%
total_exact
exact_0 25.2% exact_1 34.7% exact_2 24.0%
exact_3 11.0% exact_4plus 5.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.5% draw 42.1% away 28.4%
total
over_0.5 69.7% under_0.5 30.3% over_1.5 33.5%
under_1.5 66.5% over_2.5 11.9% under_2.5 88.1%
btts
yes 20.2% no 79.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.6% H/D 4.8% H/A 1.6%
D/H 11.4% D/D 16.3% D/A 11.0%
A/H 1.8% A/D 5.5% A/A 25.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.6% under_7.5 23.4% over_8.5 66.1%
under_8.5 34.0% over_9.5 54.6% under_9.5 45.4%
over_10.5 43.2% under_10.5 56.8% over_11.5 32.8%
under_11.5 67.2% over_12.5 23.8% under_12.5 76.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.3% under_3.5 24.8% over_4.5 61.2%
under_4.5 38.8% over_5.5 46.9% under_5.5 53.1%
team_away
over_3.5 62.5% under_3.5 37.5% over_4.5 46.3%
under_4.5 53.7% over_5.5 31.9% under_5.5 68.1%
most
home 54.9% draw 9.8% away 35.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.5% away_+3.5 73.5% home_-1.5 44.9%
away_+1.5 55.1% home_-0.5 54.9% away_+0.5 45.1%
home_+0.5 64.7% away_-0.5 35.3% home_+1.5 73.6%
away_-1.5 26.4% home_+3.5 87.1% away_-3.5 12.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 64.8% under_22.5 35.2% over_24.5 53.4%
under_24.5 46.6% over_26.5 42.1% under_26.5 57.9%
over_28.5 31.5% under_28.5 68.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.2% under_10.5 28.8% over_12.5 56.0%
under_12.5 44.0% over_14.5 40.9% under_14.5 59.1%
team_away
over_10.5 57.7% under_10.5 42.3% over_12.5 41.0%
under_12.5 59.0% over_14.5 26.8% under_14.5 73.2%
most
home 57.6% draw 5.6% away 36.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.6% away_+4.5 65.4% home_-2.5 45.9%
away_+2.5 54.1% home_-0.5 57.6% away_+0.5 42.4%
home_+0.5 63.2% away_-0.5 36.8% home_+2.5 73.6%
away_-2.5 26.4% home_+4.5 82.2% away_-4.5 17.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 75.9% under_6.5 24.1% over_7.5 65.0%
under_7.5 35.0% over_8.5 53.4% under_8.5 46.6%
over_9.5 42.0% under_9.5 58.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.7% under_3.5 33.3% over_4.5 50.6%
under_4.5 49.5% over_5.5 35.6% under_5.5 64.4%
team_away
over_3.5 58.3% under_3.5 41.7% over_4.5 41.3%
under_4.5 58.8% over_5.5 27.0% under_5.5 73.0%
most
home 50.5% draw 11.8% away 37.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.1% away_+2.5 71.9% home_-0.5 50.5%
away_+0.5 49.5% home_+0.5 62.3% away_-0.5 37.7%
home_+2.5 81.8% away_-2.5 18.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 77.7% under_2.5 22.3% over_3.5 58.7%
under_3.5 41.3% over_4.5 39.1% under_4.5 60.9%
over_5.5 23.1% under_5.5 76.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 47.4% under_1.5 52.6% over_2.5 21.6%
under_2.5 78.4%
team_away
over_1.5 71.4% under_1.5 28.6% over_2.5 45.8%
under_2.5 54.2%
most
home 23.7% draw 18.7% away 57.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 10.9% away_+1.5 89.1% home_-0.5 23.7%
away_+0.5 76.3% home_+0.5 42.4% away_-0.5 57.6%
home_+1.5 62.6% away_-1.5 37.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 60.7% under_20.5 39.3% over_22.5 44.5%
under_22.5 55.5% over_24.5 29.6% under_24.5 70.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 57.1% under_9.5 43.0% over_11.5 33.9%
under_11.5 66.1% over_13.5 16.6% under_13.5 83.4%
team_away
over_9.5 72.2% under_9.5 27.8% over_11.5 50.4%
under_11.5 49.6% over_13.5 29.7% under_13.5 70.3%
most
home 34.5% draw 7.9% away 57.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 15.5% away_+3.5 84.5% home_-0.5 34.5%
away_+0.5 65.5% home_+2.5 58.7% away_-2.5 41.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 4.9% no 95.1%
home
yes 2.2% no 97.8%
away
yes 2.8% no 97.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Newcastle predictions · Hull predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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