Primeira Liga
Estoril vs 
Arouca Corners
Result
We called Under 9.5 at 54.6% and it missed (10 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 44.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 68.2% for over 7.5 to 18.2% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.4%. On the corner count, Estoril are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 51.2%, with a level count at 10.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 68.2% | 31.9% |
| 8.5 corners | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 9.5 corners | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.7% | 74.3% |
| 12.5 corners | 18.2% | 81.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
67.5%
52.5%
38.5%
58.7%
42.8%
29.3%
Corner handicap
| Estoril line | Estoril | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| -0.5 | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| +0.5 | 61.5% | 38.6% |
| +1.5 | 70.9% | 29.1% |
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Estoril.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Estoril over 4.5 corners sits at 52.5% and Arouca at 42.8%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Estoril vs Arouca?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 45.4% for Estoril vs Arouca.
Which team will win the corner count in Estoril vs Arouca?
Before kickoff, the model rated Estoril to win the corner count at 51.2%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.