Primeira Liga
Casa Pia vs 
Porto Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 41.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 65.3% for over 7.5 to 15.7% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.5%. Head to head on corners, Porto are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 45.4%, with a level count at 10.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 9.5 corners | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 10.5 corners | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| 11.5 corners | 22.7% | 77.3% |
| 12.5 corners | 15.7% | 84.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
60.9%
45.0%
31.1%
61.9%
46.1%
32.2%
Corner handicap
| Casa Pia line | Casa Pia | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| -0.5 | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| +0.5 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| +1.5 | 64.9% | 35.1% |
This season (2026/27)
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Porto.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Casa Pia over 4.5 corners sits at 45.0% and Porto at 46.1%. This season Casa Pia have averaged 4.0 corners won a game and Porto 7.0.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Casa Pia vs Porto?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 41.9% for Casa Pia vs Porto.
Which team will win the corner count in Casa Pia vs Porto?
The model rates Porto to win the corner count at 45.4%, with a level count at 10.7%.
How many corners do Casa Pia and Porto average this season?
Casa Pia have won 4.0 corners a game this season and Porto 7.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.