Primeira Liga
Estoril vs 
Arouca Both Teams to Score
Result
We called Yes at 61.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 77.8% and it missed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Both teams to score · Yes at 61.6%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. Recent output points the same way: Estoril have averaged 0.6 scored and 2.0 conceded, Arouca 2.0 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 58.6% for over 2.5 and 81.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 goals a game. Estoril have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Arouca in 2 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Both Teams to Score
Recent scoring & conceding (per game)
0.6
2.0
2.0
0.8
Each team to score
By half
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
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5+
In-depth analysis
61.6%Both Teams to Score58.6%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 58.6% for three or more goals and 81.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Estoril favoured at 38.9%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Estoril to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Estoril 2 · 1 draws · Arouca 2 · 4.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Did both teams score in Estoril vs Arouca?
We rated Both Teams to Score at 61.6%. Both teams did not both score, final score 0-0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Both Teams to Score accuracy
How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 5,754 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 58.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls
The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Both Teams to Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.