Primeira Liga
Estoril vs 
Arouca Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 58.3% and it missed (30 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 56.9% and it landed (10 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 41.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 53.8% for over 22.5 to 21.3% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. Head to head on shots, Estoril are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.5%, with a level count at 5.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 30.6% | 69.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 21.3% | 78.7% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
66.2%
49.8%
34.5%
47.4%
30.7%
18.0%
Shot handicap
| Estoril line | Estoril | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| -2.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| -0.5 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| +0.5 | 66.4% | 33.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 32.5% | 67.5% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Estoril.
In-depth analysis
41.7%Over 24.5 shots49.8%Estoril over 12.5 shots30.7%Arouca over 12.5 shots56.9%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Estoril over 12.5 shots sits at 49.8% and Arouca at 30.7%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Estoril vs Arouca?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 41.7% for Estoril vs Arouca.
Which team will have more shots in Estoril vs Arouca?
Before kickoff, the model rated Estoril to take more shots at 60.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.