Primeira Liga
Famalicao vs 
Sp Lisbon Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 46.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.7% for over 7.5 to 19.2% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.0%. Head to head on corners, Famalicao are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 47.1%, with a level count at 10.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 8.5 corners | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| 10.5 corners | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 26.9% | 73.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 19.2% | 80.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
65.9%
50.6%
36.5%
62.8%
47.2%
33.2%
Corner handicap
| Famalicao line | Famalicao | Sp Lisbon |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| -0.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| +0.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| +1.5 | 67.2% | 32.8% |
This season (2026/27)
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Famalicao.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Famalicao over 4.5 corners sits at 50.6% and Sp Lisbon at 47.2%. This season Famalicao have averaged 6.2 corners won a game and Sp Lisbon 5.4.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Famalicao vs Sp Lisbon?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 47.0% for Famalicao vs Sp Lisbon.
Which team will win the corner count in Famalicao vs Sp Lisbon?
The model rates Famalicao to win the corner count at 47.1%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How many corners do Famalicao and Sp Lisbon average this season?
Famalicao have won 6.2 corners a game this season and Sp Lisbon 5.4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.