Primeira Liga
Academico Viseu vs 
Guimaraes Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 40.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 64.0% for over 7.5 to 14.8% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.1%. On the corner count, Academico Viseu are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 49.8%, with a level count at 10.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 8.5 corners | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| 9.5 corners | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| 10.5 corners | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 21.6% | 78.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 14.8% | 85.2% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
64.1%
48.5%
34.4%
56.7%
40.6%
27.1%
Corner handicap
| Academico Viseu line | Academico Viseu | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| -0.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| +0.5 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| +1.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
This season (2026/27)
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Academico Viseu.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Academico Viseu over 4.5 corners sits at 48.5% and Guimaraes at 40.6%. This season Academico Viseu have averaged 2.6 corners won a game and Guimaraes 5.8.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Academico Viseu vs Guimaraes?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 40.5% for Academico Viseu vs Guimaraes.
Which team will win the corner count in Academico Viseu vs Guimaraes?
The model rates Academico Viseu to win the corner count at 49.8%, with a level count at 10.7%.
How many corners do Academico Viseu and Guimaraes average this season?
Academico Viseu have won 2.6 corners a game this season and Guimaraes 5.8.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.