ElversbergElversbergWWLDL
AugsburgAugsburgWWDLDElversberg 4-3 Augsburg correct score: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Elversberg4-3Augsburg
Final score 4-3. The model gave that exact scoreline 0.8%.
Model read
No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.
Conviction: Open
Most likely · 10.6%1-1
Correct score
Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.
Rows = Elversberg goals, columns = Augsburg goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%.
Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Most likely scorelines
- 1-110.6%
- 1-28.5%
- 2-18.1%
- 2-26.8%
- 0-15.8%
- 1-05.5%
- 0-25.3%
- 2-04.8%
Score probability grid
| H / A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 2% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Rows: Elversberg · Columns: Augsburg
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
W
W
L
D
L
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
W
W
D
L
D
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Head-to-head
No recorded head-to-head results available.
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 10.6% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Elversberg have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, Augsburg 2.6 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 63.8% for over 2.5 and 84.5% for at least two goals. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
Looking at totals, the model sees 63.8% for three or more goals and 84.5% for at least two, painting a high-scoring picture. Given Augsburg favoured at 40.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Players to watch
Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.
ElversbergElversberg (1)
Nicolas Kristof
AugsburgAugsburg (1)
Anton Kade
FAQ
What was the score in Elversberg vs Augsburg?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Bundesliga, Correct Score
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
