Bundesliga
Dortmund vs 
Werder Bremen Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 10.8% at 2-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Dortmund have averaged 2.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Werder Bremen 1.0 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 60.8% for over 2.5 and 82.5% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2-0 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-0 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 9.2% |
| 3-0 | 8.0% |
| 3-1 | 7.3% |
| 0-0 | 4.8% |
| 4-0 | 4.5% |
Score probability grid
| Dortmund \ Werder Bremen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 9% | 9% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 11% | 10% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = Dortmund goals, columns = Werder Bremen. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10.8%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
53.6%Both Teams to Score60.8%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 60.8% for three or more goals and 82.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Dortmund favoured at 72.2%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Dortmund 3 · 2 draws · Werder Bremen 0 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
The model's most likely scoreline for Dortmund vs Werder Bremen is 2-0 at 10.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Bundesliga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
