Bundesliga
Dortmund vs 
Werder Bremen Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 60.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Dortmund have averaged 2.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Werder Bremen 1.0 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 60.8% for over 2.5 and 82.5% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Dortmund have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Werder Bremen in 2 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.2% | 4.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 82.5% | 17.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| 5.5 goals | 9.9% | 90.1% |
Team goal lines
89.2%
65.3%
38.6%
59.6%
23.0%
6.4%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 15.7% | 84.3% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 84.7% | 15.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 28.9% | 71.1% |
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
53.6%Both Teams to Score60.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 60.8% for three or more goals and 82.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Dortmund favoured at 72.2%, they may control possession and keep things tighter.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Dortmund to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Dortmund 3 · 2 draws · Werder Bremen 0 · 2.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 60.8% for Dortmund vs Werder Bremen.
Will there be a first-half goal in Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 74.4%.
How often have Dortmund gone over 2.5 recently?
Dortmund have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Werder Bremen in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 6,518 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Bundesliga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
