Sport-Club Freiburg vs Werder Bremen prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Sport-Club Freiburg vs Werder Bremen: model prediction

Bundesliga
Sport-Club Freiburg
Sun, 30 Aug 202614:30UK
Werder Bremen

WDLLL

Model’s top convictions

79%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Sport-Club Freiburg or draw

62%

Over 8.5 corners

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Sport-Club FreiburgWin probability
38.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals78.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Sport-Club Freiburg or draw64.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.55
Over 8.5 corners61.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

Expect a tight one: the model splits Sport-Club Freiburg and Werder Bremen almost evenly, Sport-Club Freiburg marginally on top at 38%. No strong lean on goals (55% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. As a promoted side, Sport-Club Freiburg carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. The numbers do not clear our bar.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners40.8%@ 2.45
Werder Bremen win35.5%@ 2.82
Over 11.5 corners31.6%@ 3.16
Medium risk

Draw or Werder Bremen61.6%@ 1.62
Both teams to score58.5%@ 1.71
Over 2.5 goals54.6%@ 1.83
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.3%@ 8.15
2-1 correct score8.5%@ 11.72
1-2 correct score8.2%@ 12.18

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Sport-Club Freiburg

38.4%

Draw

26.1%

Werder Bremen

35.5%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.5%

High probability

Over 2.554.6%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes58.5%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.0%

Good chance

Over 10.540.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.6%

Toss-up

Most cornersSport-Club Freiburg 59.6% · Werder Bremen 30.2%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.5%2.554.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.578.5%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

Werder BremenWDLLL

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Oliver BurkeWerder Bremen · key player
To score18.3%

@ 5.46

1+ on target38.2%

@ 2.62

2+ shots40.8%

@ 2.45

Shots/90 3.61SoT/90 1.24Goals/90 0.52
Marvin DuckschWerder Bremen · in form
To score22.1%

@ 4.52

1+ on target58.4%

@ 1.71

2+ shots65.0%

@ 1.54

Shots/90 2.58SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.29
Justin NjinmahWerder Bremen · in form
To score12.7%

@ 7.87

1+ on target38.7%

@ 2.58

2+ shots46.8%

@ 2.14

Shots/90 2.9SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.25

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sport-Club Freiburg win2.62
Draw3.83
Werder Bremen win2.80
Both teams to score1.71

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.27
Over 2.5 goals1.83
Over 3.5 goals3.10
Sport-Club Freiburg most2.62
Werder Bremen most2.80

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.55
Over 9.5 corners1.90
Over 10.5 corners2.45
Sport-Club Freiburg most1.68
Werder Bremen most3.30

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.37
Over 3.5 cards1.91
Over 4.5 cards3.03
Over 5.5 cards5.46
Sport-Club Freiburg most3.08
Werder Bremen most2.15

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.25
Over 7.5 SoT1.43
Over 8.5 SoT1.71
Over 9.5 SoT2.14
Sport-Club Freiburg most1.67
Werder Bremen most3.47

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.45
Over 24.5 shots1.75
Over 26.5 shots2.22
Over 28.5 shots2.98
Sport-Club Freiburg most1.54
Werder Bremen most3.37

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.19
Over 22.5 fouls2.94
Over 24.5 fouls4.16
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 80.2% Over 7.5 69.9% Over 8.5 58.4% Over 9.5 46.7%
Most: Sport-Club Freiburg 60.1% Most: Werder Bremen 28.8%
Sport-Club Freiburg Over 4.2 60.4% Werder Bremen Over 4.2 37.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 73.0% Over 3.5 52.5% Over 4.5 33.0%
Most: Sport-Club Freiburg 32.5% Most: Werder Bremen 46.5%
Sport-Club Freiburg Over 1.8 51.2% Werder Bremen Over 1.8 61.3%

Werder Bremen: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Oliver Burke 3.61 1.24 0.52 38.2% 40.8% 18.3%
Marvin Ducksch 2.58 1.02 0.29 58.4% 65.0% 22.1%
Justin Njinmah 2.9 0.9 0.25 38.7% 46.8% 12.7%
Keke Maximilian Topp 3.48 0.76 0.33 16.4% 19.9% 7.5%
Jovan Milosevic 2.27 0.76 0.57 26.6% 23.6% 20.7%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 38.2% draw 26.1% away 35.7%
double_chance
1X 64.3% 12 73.9% X2 61.9%
dnb
home 51.6% away 48.4%
btts
yes 58.5% no 41.5%
clean_sheet
home 24.5% away 23.3%
win_to_nil
home 18.3% away 17.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.7% home_by_2 11.4% home_by_3plus 7.0%
away_by_1 19.0% away_by_2 10.6% away_by_3plus 6.2%
correct_score
0-0 6.3% 0-1 7.4% 0-2 5.6%
0-3 2.6% 0-4 0.9% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 7.7% 1-1 12.3% 1-2 8.2%
1-3 3.9% 1-4 1.4% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 6.1% 2-1 8.5% 2-2 6.0%
2-3 2.8% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.9% 3-1 4.2% 3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.4% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.1% 4-1 1.5% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.7% under_0.5 6.3% over_1.5 78.5%
under_1.5 21.5% over_2.5 54.6% under_2.5 45.4%
over_3.5 32.2% under_3.5 67.8% over_4.5 16.3%
under_4.5 83.8% over_5.5 7.1% under_5.5 92.9%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 76.8% under_0.5 23.3% over_1.5 42.8%
under_1.5 57.2% over_2.5 18.1% under_2.5 81.9%
team_away
over_0.5 75.5% under_0.5 24.5% over_1.5 41.0%
under_1.5 59.0% over_2.5 16.8% under_2.5 83.2%
most
home 38.2% draw 26.1% away 35.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.0% away_+2.5 93.0% home_-1.5 18.4%
away_+1.5 81.6% home_-0.5 38.2% away_+0.5 61.9%
home_+0.5 64.3% away_-0.5 35.7% home_+1.5 83.2%
away_-1.5 16.8% home_+2.5 93.9% away_-2.5 6.2%
total_exact
exact_0 6.3% exact_1 15.2% exact_2 24.0%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 16.0% exact_5 9.2%
exact_6 4.4% exact_7plus 2.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 43.2% draw 39.6% away 17.2%
total
over_0.5 71.2% under_0.5 28.8% over_1.5 35.3%
under_1.5 64.7% over_2.5 13.0% under_2.5 87.0%
btts
yes 19.1% no 80.9%
total_exact
exact_0 28.8% exact_1 35.9% exact_2 22.3%
exact_3 9.2% exact_4plus 3.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.9% draw 33.4% away 25.7%
total
over_0.5 82.0% under_0.5 18.0% over_1.5 51.1%
under_1.5 48.9% over_2.5 24.7% under_2.5 75.3%
btts
yes 32.3% no 67.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 35.0% H/D 5.8% H/A 2.3%
D/H 16.2% D/D 13.2% D/A 10.2%
A/H 2.4% A/D 3.9% A/A 11.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.5% under_7.5 24.5% over_8.5 64.4%
under_8.5 35.6% over_9.5 52.5% under_9.5 47.5%
over_10.5 40.9% under_10.5 59.1% over_11.5 30.3%
under_11.5 69.7% over_12.5 21.5% under_12.5 78.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.7% under_3.5 22.3% over_4.5 63.7%
under_4.5 36.3% over_5.5 48.9% under_5.5 51.1%
team_away
over_3.5 58.5% under_3.5 41.5% over_4.5 41.3%
under_4.5 58.7% over_5.5 26.8% under_5.5 73.2%
most
home 59.7% draw 10.0% away 30.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.8% away_+3.5 71.2% home_-1.5 49.0%
away_+1.5 51.0% home_-0.5 59.7% away_+0.5 40.3%
home_+0.5 69.7% away_-0.5 30.3% home_+1.5 78.5%
away_-1.5 21.5% home_+3.5 90.8% away_-3.5 9.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 69.0% under_22.5 31.0% over_24.5 57.2%
under_24.5 42.8% over_26.5 45.1% under_26.5 54.9%
over_28.5 33.6% under_28.5 66.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.3% under_10.5 21.7% over_12.5 63.6%
under_12.5 36.4% over_14.5 47.6% under_14.5 52.4%
team_away
over_10.5 56.0% under_10.5 44.0% over_12.5 38.1%
under_12.5 61.9% over_14.5 23.4% under_14.5 76.6%
most
home 64.8% draw 5.6% away 29.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.6% away_+4.5 59.4% home_-2.5 52.8%
away_+2.5 47.2% home_-0.5 64.8% away_+0.5 35.2%
home_+0.5 70.3% away_-0.5 29.7% home_+2.5 80.0%
away_-2.5 20.0% home_+4.5 87.5% away_-4.5 12.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 80.2% under_6.5 19.8% over_7.5 69.9%
under_7.5 30.1% over_8.5 58.4% under_8.5 41.6%
over_9.5 46.7% under_9.5 53.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.5% under_3.5 24.5% over_4.5 60.4%
under_4.5 39.6% over_5.5 45.0% under_5.5 55.0%
team_away
over_3.5 55.4% under_3.5 44.6% over_4.5 37.7%
under_4.5 62.3% over_5.5 23.3% under_5.5 76.7%
most
home 60.1% draw 11.1% away 28.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 36.5% away_+2.5 63.5% home_-0.5 60.1%
away_+0.5 40.0% home_+0.5 71.2% away_-0.5 28.8%
home_+2.5 87.8% away_-2.5 12.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 73.0% under_2.5 27.0% over_3.5 52.5%
under_3.5 47.5% over_4.5 33.0% under_4.5 67.0%
over_5.5 18.3% under_5.5 81.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.2% under_1.5 48.8% over_2.5 24.8%
under_2.5 75.3%
team_away
over_1.5 61.4% under_1.5 38.7% over_2.5 34.3%
under_2.5 65.7%
most
home 32.5% draw 21.0% away 46.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.2% away_+1.5 83.9% home_-0.5 32.5%
away_+0.5 67.5% home_+0.5 53.5% away_-0.5 46.5%
home_+1.5 73.2% away_-1.5 26.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 45.7% under_20.5 54.3% over_22.5 34.0%
under_22.5 66.0% over_24.5 24.0% under_24.5 76.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 51.0% under_9.5 49.0% over_11.5 34.1%
under_11.5 65.9% over_13.5 21.0% under_13.5 79.0%
team_away
over_9.5 51.9% under_9.5 48.1% over_11.5 35.0%
under_11.5 65.0% over_13.5 21.7% under_13.5 78.3%
most
home 46.1% draw 6.5% away 47.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.9% away_+3.5 72.1% home_-0.5 46.1%
away_+0.5 53.9% home_+2.5 65.2% away_-2.5 34.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 24.4% no 75.6%
home
yes 14.3% no 85.7%
away
yes 11.8% no 88.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sport-Club Freiburg predictions · Werder Bremen predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

BundesligaSport-Club FreiburgWerder BremenTrack record