AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Serie A
ComoComoWWLDW
Full time2-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1014:00UK
SassuoloSassuoloDWLDL

Como 2-0 Sassuolo cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.1%

Result

Como2-0Sassuolo
4 yellow cardsComo 2, Sassuolo 2
0 red cardsComo 0, Sassuolo 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 54.9% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 81.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.9%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Davide Di Marco

Recorded match referee.

Davide Di Marco in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 5 2
Goals 2.60 Not available
Yellow cards 3.20 Not available
Red cards 0.00 Not available
Corners 9.6 Not available
Fouls 22.4 Not available
Both teams scored 60% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 60% Not available
Home wins 60% Not available
Latest 5 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Como vs Sassuolo 2-0 2 No 4 0 10 24
29 Aug 2026 Sassuolo vs Torino 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 7 21
18 Apr 2026 Udinese vs Parma 0-1 1 No 2 0 15 19
13 Dec 2025 Atalanta vs Cagliari 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 9 28
24 Nov 2025 Sassuolo vs Pisa 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 7 20

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Como vs Sassuolo. The model leans toward Sassuolo for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.2% 25.8%
3.5 cards 54.9% 45.1%
4.5 cards 36.2% 63.8%
5.5 cards 21.5% 78.6%

Who picks up more cards

Como
34.9%
Level
20.2%
Sassuolo
45.0%

Team cards lines

Como

Over 1.5
53.9%
Over 2.5
28.2%

Sassuolo

Over 1.5
61.1%
Over 2.5
35.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Como's; Sassuolo gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Como line Como Sassuolo
-1.5 18.6% 81.4%
-0.5 34.9% 65.1%
+0.5 55.0% 45.0%
+1.5 73.5% 26.5%

Red card

Any red card18.8%
Como red card5.4%
Sassuolo red card14.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 69.0% 31.0%
22.5 fouls 56.1% 43.9%
24.5 fouls 43.0% 57.0%
ComoComo

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Como at home and Sassuolo away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

SassuoloSassuolo
Statistic
Como
Sassuolo
Yellow cards per game
0.8
·

First-half yellow cards per game
0.2
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.6
·

Matches with card data
4
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 54.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.2% for over 2.5 to 21.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.9%. On the card count, Sassuolo are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 20.2%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Como over 1.5 cards sits at 53.9% and Sassuolo at 61.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.8% (Como 5.4%, Sassuolo 14.2%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

54.9%Over 3.5 cards
18.8%Any red card
45.0%Most cards: Sassuolo
53.9%Como over 1.5 cards
61.1%Sassuolo over 1.5 cards
56.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.8%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianSassuolo are the pick to collect more cards at 45.0%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 54.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
ComoComo

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

SassuoloSassuolo
Statistic
Como
Sassuolo
fouls per game
7.8
8.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Como vs Sassuolo?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 54.9% for Como vs Sassuolo.
Will there be a red card in Como vs Sassuolo?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 18.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Como vs Sassuolo?
Before kickoff, the model rated Sassuolo to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 20.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Serie AComo fixtures and statsSassuolo fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.