Chelsea vs Hull prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Chelsea vs Hull: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Premier League
Chelsea

WLWWL

Sat, 12 Sep 202615:00UK23°C · Cloudy
Hull

LLWWD

Model’s top convictions

84%

Chelsea or draw

83%

Over 1.5 goals

62%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.07).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
ChelseaWin probability
63.3%
Top 3 convictions

Chelsea or draw83.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.19
Over 1.5 goals82.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Over 8.5 corners61.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Chelsea heavy favourites at 63% when Chelsea meet Hull in the Premier League on 12 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Chelsea higher (79%) than our model does. 2) The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 61% with both teams to score at 58%. 3) History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 4 wins for Chelsea, 0 draws and 0 for Hull at 2.8 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Chelsea W3 D1 L2, Hull W2 D1 L3. As a promoted side, Hull carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Team news worth noting: Chelsea have Henderson ruled out, Sánchez ruled out, Jörgensen ruled out, Chalobah ruled out. For shots markets, Cole Palmer is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.07).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners41.9%@ 2.39
Draw or Hull36.7%@ 2.72
Over 11.5 corners33.1%@ 3.02
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals60.8%@ 1.64
Both teams to score57.7%@ 1.73
Over 9.5 corners51.6%@ 1.94
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.0%@ 9.98
2-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.09
2-0 correct score9.3%@ 10.73

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Chelsea

63.3%-15.8%

Draw

20.5%+7.0%

Hull

16.2%+8.8%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.07)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.582.6%

High probability

Over 2.560.8%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes57.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.6%

Good chance

Over 10.541.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.533.1%

Toss-up

Most cornersChelsea55.5%Hull34.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.551.6%

Good chance

Over 26.540.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.529.7%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Chelsea12.2 taken13.7 faced
Hull10.0 taken14.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Chelsea (3 games)

9.0 / 7.3

Hull (3 games)

3.7 / 4.7

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.582.6%2.560.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.560.8%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.07).

Form & head-to-head

ChelseaWLWWL
HullLLWWD

Last 4 meetings: Chelsea 4 · 0 draws · Hull 0 · 2.8 goals/game.

2017-01-22Chelsea 2-0 Hull
2016-10-01Hull 0-2 Chelsea
2015-03-22Hull 2-3 Chelsea
2014-12-13Chelsea 2-0 Hull

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ChelseaHull
League position#4 of 20#3 of 20
Record W-D-L2-0-12-1-0
Current streakL1D1
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.83 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Cole PalmerChelsea · key player
To score33.4%

@ 2.99

1+ on target69.6%

@ 1.44

2+ shots81.1%

@ 1.23

Shots/90 3.32SoT/90 1.29Goals/90 0.44
Robinio VazHull · key player
To score15.9%

@ 6.29

1+ on target24.1%

@ 4.15

2+ shots9.6%

@ 10.42

Shots/90 2.24SoT/90 1.19Goals/90 0.75
EstêvãoChelsea · in form
To score7.8%

@ 12.82

1+ on target33.0%

@ 3.03

2+ shots33.8%

@ 2.96

Shots/90 3.12SoT/90 1.04Goals/90 0.21
Mohamed Ali-ChoHull · in form
To score11.1%

@ 9.01

1+ on target39.2%

@ 2.55

2+ shots38.2%

@ 2.62

Shots/90 1.92SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.17
Danny WelbeckChelsea · in form
To score27.2%

@ 3.68

1+ on target51.0%

@ 1.96

2+ shots49.1%

@ 2.04

Shots/90 2.34SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.45
Oliver McBurnieHull · in form
To score8.6%

@ 11.63

1+ on target29.9%

@ 3.34

2+ shots23.1%

@ 4.33

Shots/90 1.51SoT/90 0.59Goals/90 0.15

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Chelsea win1.221.58
Draw6.504.88
Hull win11.006.17
Over 2.5 goals1.401.64
Under 2.5 goals3.002.55

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Chelsea win1.66
Draw4.63
Hull win5.49
Both teams to score1.73

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.21
Over 2.5 goals1.65
Over 3.5 goals2.60
Over 4.5 goals4.78
Chelsea most1.66
Hull most5.49

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.53
Over 9.5 corners1.86
Over 10.5 corners2.37
Chelsea most1.80
Hull most2.90

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.28
Over 3.5 cards1.70
Over 4.5 cards2.54
Over 5.5 cards4.28
Chelsea most3.22
Hull most2.04

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.68
Over 8.5 SoT2.10
Over 9.5 SoT2.76
Chelsea most1.94
Hull most2.76

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.58
Over 24.5 shots1.94
Over 26.5 shots2.49
Over 28.5 shots3.37
Chelsea most1.59
Hull most3.18

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.62
Over 22.5 fouls2.19
Over 24.5 fouls3.27

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • HendersonChelseaOut0% to play
  • SánchezChelseaOut0% to play
  • JörgensenChelseaOut0% to play
  • ChalobahChelseaOut0% to play
  • B.BadiashileChelseaOut0% to play
  • M.SarrChelseaOut0% to play
  • PalestraChelseaOut0% to play
  • CaicedoChelseaOut0% to play
  • D.EssugoChelseaOut0% to play
  • Marc GuiuChelseaOut0% to play
  • EmeghaChelseaOut0% to play
  • Levi Colwill, Trevoh Chalobah, Filip Jorgensen, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Reece James, Benoit BadiashileChelseaOut

What the absences carry

  • Moisés CaicedoChelsea2.9%7.7 xG+xA in 5,941 min
  • Robert SánchezChelsea0.3%0.9 xG+xA in 5,754 min

Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 63.1% Over 24.5 51.5% Over 26.5 40.1% Over 28.5 29.7%
Most: Chelsea 63.1% Most: Hull 31.5%
Chelsea Over 13.2 50.8% Hull Over 13.2 28.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 71.3% Over 7.5 59.6% Over 8.5 47.5% Over 9.5 36.2%
Most: Chelsea 51.6% Most: Hull 36.2%
Chelsea Over 4.2 47.3% Hull Over 4.2 36.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 77.9% Over 3.5 58.9% Over 4.5 39.4%
Most: Chelsea 31.0% Most: Hull 49.1%
Chelsea Over 1.8 54.3% Hull Over 1.8 66.9%

Chelsea: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Cole Palmer 3.32 1.29 0.44 69.6% 81.1% 33.4%
Estêvão 3.12 1.04 0.21 33.0% 33.8% 7.8%
Danny Welbeck 2.34 1.01 0.45 51.0% 49.1% 27.2%
João Pedro 2.38 0.89 0.49 52.7% 59.4% 33.8%
Enzo Fernández 1.89 0.76 0.24 50.5% 52.2% 19.9%

Hull: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Robinio Vaz 2.24 1.19 0.75 24.1% 9.6% 15.9%
Mohamed Ali-Cho 1.92 0.72 0.17 39.2% 38.2% 11.1%
Oliver McBurnie 1.51 0.59 0.15 29.9% 23.1% 8.6%
Nobel Mendy 0.61 0.25 0.12 18.4% 8.9% 9.3%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy 0.63 0.17 0.06 12.4% 8.8% 4.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Chelsea clean sheet 33.8%
Hull clean sheet 12.5%
Chelsea win to nil 29.0%
Hull win to nil 7.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 60.2% draw 21.6% away 18.2%
double_chance
1X 81.8% 12 78.4% X2 39.8%
dnb
home 76.8% away 23.2%
btts
yes 57.7% no 42.3%
clean_sheet
home 34.5% away 12.5%
win_to_nil
home 29.7% away 7.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.8% home_by_2 18.4% home_by_3plus 19.0%
away_by_1 11.5% away_by_2 4.8% away_by_3plus 1.9%
correct_score
0-0 4.8% 0-1 4.1% 0-2 2.5%
0-3 0.9% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 8.5% 1-1 10.0% 1-2 5.1%
1-3 1.8% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.3% 2-1 9.9% 2-2 5.3%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 6.5% 3-1 6.9% 3-2 3.7%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 3.4% 4-1 3.6% 4-2 1.9%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.4% 5-1 1.5% 5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 2.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.2% under_0.5 4.8% over_1.5 82.6%
under_1.5 17.4% over_2.5 60.8% under_2.5 39.2%
over_3.5 38.5% under_3.5 61.6% over_4.5 20.9%
under_4.5 79.1% over_5.5 9.9% under_5.5 90.1%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 87.5% under_0.5 12.5% over_1.5 61.5%
under_1.5 38.6% over_2.5 34.4% under_2.5 65.6%
team_away
over_0.5 65.5% under_0.5 34.5% over_1.5 28.8%
under_1.5 71.2% over_2.5 9.2% under_2.5 90.8%
most
home 60.2% draw 21.6% away 18.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 19.0% away_+2.5 81.0% home_-1.5 37.4%
away_+1.5 62.6% home_-0.5 60.2% away_+0.5 39.8%
home_+0.5 81.8% away_-0.5 18.2% home_+1.5 93.3%
away_-1.5 6.7% home_+2.5 98.1% away_-2.5 1.9%
total_exact
exact_0 4.8% exact_1 12.6% exact_2 21.8%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 17.5% exact_5 11.0%
exact_6 5.8% exact_7plus 4.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.0% draw 42.1% away 27.9%
total
over_0.5 69.6% under_0.5 30.4% over_1.5 33.5%
under_1.5 66.6% over_2.5 11.9% under_2.5 88.1%
btts
yes 20.1% no 79.9%
total_exact
exact_0 30.4% exact_1 36.2% exact_2 21.6%
exact_3 8.6% exact_4plus 3.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.8% draw 42.1% away 31.2%
total
over_0.5 69.7% under_0.5 30.3% over_1.5 33.5%
under_1.5 66.5% over_2.5 11.9% under_2.5 88.1%
btts
yes 20.1% no 79.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.6% H/D 5.5% H/A 2.0%
D/H 11.3% D/D 17.7% D/A 13.1%
A/H 1.4% A/D 4.6% A/A 21.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.9% under_7.5 24.1% over_8.5 65.2%
under_8.5 34.8% over_9.5 53.7% under_9.5 46.3%
over_10.5 42.3% under_10.5 57.7% over_11.5 31.9%
under_11.5 68.1% over_12.5 23.0% under_12.5 77.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.3% under_3.5 24.7% over_4.5 61.2%
under_4.5 38.8% over_5.5 46.8% under_5.5 53.2%
team_away
over_3.5 61.4% under_3.5 38.6% over_4.5 45.0%
under_4.5 55.0% over_5.5 30.7% under_5.5 69.3%
most
home 55.7% draw 9.8% away 34.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.0% away_+3.5 73.0% home_-1.5 45.6%
away_+1.5 54.4% home_-0.5 55.7% away_+0.5 44.3%
home_+0.5 65.5% away_-0.5 34.5% home_+1.5 74.3%
away_-1.5 25.7% home_+3.5 87.7% away_-3.5 12.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 63.1% under_22.5 36.9% over_24.5 51.6%
under_24.5 48.4% over_26.5 40.1% under_26.5 59.9%
over_28.5 29.7% under_28.5 70.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.3% under_10.5 26.7% over_12.5 58.5%
under_12.5 41.6% over_14.5 43.4% under_14.5 56.7%
team_away
over_10.5 52.2% under_10.5 47.8% over_12.5 35.5%
under_12.5 64.5% over_14.5 22.1% under_14.5 77.9%
most
home 63.1% draw 5.4% away 31.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 39.8% away_+4.5 60.2% home_-2.5 51.5%
away_+2.5 48.5% home_-0.5 63.1% away_+0.5 36.9%
home_+0.5 68.5% away_-0.5 31.5% home_+2.5 78.2%
away_-2.5 21.8% home_+4.5 85.9% away_-4.5 14.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 71.3% under_6.5 28.7% over_7.5 59.6%
under_7.5 40.4% over_8.5 47.5% under_8.5 52.5%
over_9.5 36.2% under_9.5 63.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.8% under_3.5 36.2% over_4.5 47.3%
under_4.5 52.7% over_5.5 32.5% under_5.5 67.5%
team_away
over_3.5 53.3% under_3.5 46.8% over_4.5 36.1%
under_4.5 63.9% over_5.5 22.6% under_5.5 77.4%
most
home 51.6% draw 12.2% away 36.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.3% away_+2.5 71.7% home_-0.5 51.6%
away_+0.5 48.4% home_+0.5 63.8% away_-0.5 36.2%
home_+2.5 83.4% away_-2.5 16.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 77.9% under_2.5 22.1% over_3.5 59.0%
under_3.5 41.1% over_4.5 39.4% under_4.5 60.6%
over_5.5 23.4% under_5.5 76.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 54.3% under_1.5 45.7% over_2.5 27.5%
under_2.5 72.5%
team_away
over_1.5 66.9% under_1.5 33.1% over_2.5 40.4%
under_2.5 59.6%
most
home 31.0% draw 19.9% away 49.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.7% away_+1.5 84.3% home_-0.5 31.0%
away_+0.5 69.0% home_+0.5 50.9% away_-0.5 49.1%
home_+1.5 70.3% away_-1.5 29.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 61.8% under_20.5 38.2% over_22.5 45.6%
under_22.5 54.4% over_24.5 30.6% under_24.5 69.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 60.3% under_9.5 39.7% over_11.5 37.2%
under_11.5 62.8% over_13.5 19.0% under_13.5 81.1%
team_away
over_9.5 70.8% under_9.5 29.2% over_11.5 48.7%
under_11.5 51.3% over_13.5 28.2% under_13.5 71.8%
most
home 37.9% draw 8.0% away 54.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.8% away_+3.5 82.2% home_-0.5 37.9%
away_+0.5 62.1% home_+2.5 62.0% away_-2.5 38.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 9.8% no 90.2%
home
yes 6.0% no 94.0%
away
yes 4.0% no 96.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Chelsea predictions · Hull predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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